基于事故树的观测山洞施工风险分析  

RISK ANALYSIS ON OBSERVATION CAVE CONSTRUCTIONBASED ON FAULT TREE

作　　者：匡泳庄 施栋鑫 刘云鑫 王赟辉 顾慧冬 KUANG Yongzhuang;SHI Dongxin;LIU Yunxin;WANG Yunhui;GU Huidong(Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,China;Yunnan Vocational College of Transportation,Kunming 650300,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省地震局,云南昆明650224 [2]云南交通运输职业学院,云南昆明650300

出　　处：《高原地震》2023年第3期45-50,共6页Plateau Earthquake Research

基　　金：地震科技星火计划(项目编号:XH19039Y)资助。

摘　　要：隧道施工是丽江地震台迁建项目的重要环节,而隧道施工常存在塌方风险。应用鱼刺图对隧道施工风险进行识别,确定塌方为该项目施工主要风险,在此基础上采用事故树分析法对塌方风险进行定性、定量分析。对比分析不同影响因素的结构重要度,发现在项目施工过程中项目管理人员和施工人员所导致的人为因素是引发塌方风险的重要原因。因此健全管理模式,加强人员安全意识培训,制定合理的应急预案尤为重要。The construction of tunnel is an essential step of the relocation of Lijiang Seismic Station with high risks of collapse.Using fishbone diagrams to identify risks of tunnel during construction stage,it is determined that collapse is the main risk of the project during construction stage.Based on this,the analyzing method of the accident tree is used to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the risk collapse.By comparing and analyzing the structural importance of different influencing factors,it was found that human factors caused by project management and construction personnel during the construction stage are important reasons for triggering the risk of collapse.Hence,it is particularly important to improve management models,strengthen safety awareness training of personnel,and develop reasonable emergency plans.

关 键 词：丽江地震台 观测山洞塌方风险 鱼刺图 事故树分析 风险分析 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学] X4[天文地球—固体地球物理学]