三大主力船型运输市场前瞻  

The overview and outlook of container,dry bulk and tanker shipping market

作　　者：徐亦宁(编译) 

机构地区：[1]不详

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2023年第10期60-62,13,共4页Maritime China

摘　　要：集装箱运输市场:新船运力将创新纪录在需求端,2023年全球集装箱运输量增长率预计为-0.5%~0.5%,2024年为3.0%~4.0%。综合来看,去程航线和区域贸易航线箱量将小幅上升,预计2023年的增长率为0.0%~1.0%,2024年为3.5%~4.5%。BIMCO认为,由于企业和消费者的财务状况紧张,主要航线的贸易量复苏将推迟到2024年。As of September this year,what’s the supply and demand situation of the global container,dry bulk and tanker shipping market?BIMCO's chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen brings the latest forecasts to the industry.Container shipping market:New ship capacity will set a record.Given the forecast of supply and demand,we believe time charter rates and secondhand vessel prices will remain under downward pressure.Seasonal demand fluctuations may temporarily support freight and vessel price increases,but will not change the market's development trend.Demand is expected to grow faster than supply in 2024,but the market will remain under pressure from excess capacity.Dry bulk shipping market:Chinese demand is key.The supply of dry bulk carrier capacity is expected to grow by 1%to 2%in 2023 and 2024,while demand growth is 1.5%to 2.5%in 2023 and 1%to 2%in 2024.In the low scenario,supply and demand tend to be in weak balance,especially in 2024.Tanker shipping market:Supply and demand relationship continues to improve.Crude oil tanker capacity supply in 2023 and 2024 is expected to grow by 4.0%and-0.6%,respectively,while refined product tankers are expected to grow by 4.2%and 0.3%,r espectively.

关 键 词：集装箱运输量 财务状况 贸易航线 市场前瞻 需求端 贸易量 增长率 

分 类 号：F55[经济管理—产业经济]