市场展望:全球海运贸易量将小幅回升  

Shipping outlook:Global seaborne trade will pick up slightly

出　　处：《中国远洋海运》2023年第11期70-71,11,共3页Maritime China

摘　　要：今年以来,航运业各细分市场走势处于分化状态。其中与能源运输相关的细分市场表现最为强劲,而集装箱和干散货航运市场则整体较为疲软。今年9月,克拉克森海运指数仍保持在20000美元/天以上水平,尽管与3月份相比有所下滑,但仍较过去十年平均值高出20%。Conditions across the shipping segments have remained mixed over the past six months,with energy shipping strong but weaker conditions in containers and dry.The ClarkSea Index remained above$20,000/day in September,down from our last review but 20%above the 10-year trend.Extracted from our Shipping Review&Outlook,this month’s analysis profiles wider industry trends.Despite macroeconomic headwinds,including pressures from inflation,high interest rates and an‘uneven’Chinese economic recovery,seaborne trade has returned to growth in 2023(we forecast+2%to 12.3bn tonnes).And in China,despite negative“headline”data(by value)and real estate problems(especially outside of tier one cities),trade volumes have grown firmly,representing the largest contributor to global growth.But there remain key risks and vulnerabilities across the world economy that require“tricky”policy management.The“distance kicker”we discussed previously remains an underlying trend:trade pattern shifts related to sanctions support our tanker tonne-mile forecast of 8%this year(even with OPEC cuts“dampening”volumes).Overall,we project growth in tonne-miles of 3.8%in 2023;this would be the firmest expansion since 2017.Growth in energy-related trade(2023(f):+3.6%)is outpacing non-energy trade(+1.7%)while vehicles(~30%EVs)and LPG are the two strongest growing trades in 2023.

关 键 词：能源运输 航运业 市场展望 细分市场 集装箱 干散货航运市场 分化状态 海运指数 

分 类 号：F55[经济管理—产业经济]