大渡河上游面雨量预报质量检验与释用  

The Performance Evaluation and Interpretation of Area Rainfall Forecast in the Upper Reaches of the Dadu River

作　　者：黄瑶 刘新超 淡嘉 HUANG Yao;LIU Xinchao;DAN Jia(Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateaus and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Meteorological Service Center,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [2]四川省气象服务中心,四川成都610072

出　　处：《中低纬山地气象》2023年第5期64-68,共5页Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金研究型业务面上专项(SCQXKJYJXMS202217)。

摘　　要：基于2019年6—10月中央气象台智能网格预报模式(NWGD)降水产品和CMPAS-V2.1融合降水分析实时数据产品,采用平均绝对误差、晴雨预报正确率、TS评分等方法评估该预报产品对大渡河上游面雨量的预报效果。评估结果表明:NWGD预报产品在大渡河上游面雨量的预报效果整体较好,平均绝对误差范围控制在5.6 mm以内,晴雨预报可信度较高。小雨的预报效果好于中雨,小雨的TS评分大于中雨,空报率和漏报率均低于中雨。将小雨和中雨分别做消空处理,小雨各预报时效消空处理后晴雨预报正确率提升不明显,而中雨预报效果有明显提升。Based on the precipitation product of the intelligent grid forecasting model(NWGD)of the Central Meteorological Observatory and the real-time data product of CMPAS-V2.1 integrated precipitation analysis from June to October 2019,the mean absolute error,accuracy rate of rain forecast,treat score and other methods were used to evaluate the forecast effect of the forecast product on the upper reaches of Dadu River.The results show that the NWGD forecast products have a good forecast effect on area rainfall in the upper reaches of Dadu River,the mean absolute error range is controlled within 5.6 mm,and the reliability of weather forecast is high.The forecast effect of light rain is better than that of moderate rain.The treat score of light rain is higher than that of moderate rain,and the rate of false report and missing report is lower than that of moderate rain.After the light rain and moderate rain were degraded respectively,the forecast quality of light rain is not improved obviously,but the forecast effect of moderate rain is obviously improved.

关 键 词：大渡河上游 面雨量 TS评分 预报检验 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]