现收现付制下长期护理保险缴费水平测算分析  

Calculation and Analysis on Premium of Long-Term Care Insurance Under the Pay-as-You-Go System

作　　者：薛惠元[1,2] 吴欣芸 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学社会保障研究中心,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学政治与公共管理学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《中国医疗保险》2023年第11期56-65,共10页China Health Insurance

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“基于反事实分析的长期护理保险试点政策的效应评估与优化路径研究”(22YJA630101)。

摘　　要：本文认为现收现付制可能是中国长期护理保险的未来制度方向,具有社会风险共担和代际公平的优势,但也面临财务不可持续的潜在风险。本文运用2014年—2020年CLASS四期截面数据和Barthel指数评定量表计算出分年龄分性别分等级的老年人口失能率,使用人口预测软件PADIS-INT预测了未来中国人口的规模、结构和变化趋势,最后基于基金收支平衡原则测算了2020年—2050年我国长期护理保险的年人均缴费水平和缴费负担水平。结果显示:在缴费人群分别为16岁—60岁和40岁—60岁的两种方案中,年人均缴费水平分别处于[380,1546]元和[776,3258]元的区间内,缴费负担水平分别处于[1.06%,1.26%]和[2.14%,2.64%]区间内。这表明长期护理保险的缴费负担处于适当水平,为扩大参保覆盖面和提高参保意愿提供了有利条件。The pay-as-you-go system will be the main direction for the future development of long-term care insurance in China.It has the advantages of social risk sharing and intergenerational equity,but faces the potential risk of financial unsustainability.This article uses the CLASS cross-sectional data from 2014 to 2020 and the Barthel Index rating scale to measure the disability rates of the elderly population by age,gender,and level,applies the population projection software PADIS-INT to predict the size,structure and trend of China’s population,and finally predicts the annual premium and the contribution burden level of long-term care insurance from 2020 to 2050 based on the principle of balanced budget.The results show that under the two different schemes of paying population aged from 16 to 60 and from 40 to 60,the annual premium is in the range of[380,1546]yuan and[776,3258]yuan respectively,and the contribution burden level is in the range of[1.06%,1.26%]and[2.14%,2.64%]respectively.It indicates that if the premium of long-term care insurance is at an appropriate level,it can provide favorable conditions for expanding the coverage and improving the participation intention.

关 键 词：长期护理保险 现收现付制 缴费水平 精算平衡 长期预测 

分 类 号：F840.684[经济管理—保险] C913.7[社会学]