台风“杜苏芮”(2305)的主要特点及路径和强度预报难点分析  

Analysis on main characteristics of Typhoon Doksuri(2305)and difficulties in its track and intensity forecast

作　　者：刘达 向纯怡 张玲 许映龙 罗琦 LIU Da;XIANG Chunyi;ZHANG Ling;XU Yinglong;LUO Qi(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《海洋气象学报》2023年第4期1-10,共10页Journal of Marine Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J027);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42205068)。

摘　　要：通过总结2023年第5号台风“杜苏芮”的主要特点,并对主要的预报难点问题进行分析和研究,得出以下主要结论:(1)“杜苏芮”登陆强度强,是2023年截至10月登陆我国最强的台风,登陆后在陆上长时间维持,造成福建、安徽等地多站点风雨观测突破历史极值,黄淮、华北等地出现历史极端强降雨天气。(2)在“杜苏芮”生成初期,由于副热带高压受到多系统的影响,数值模式对于“杜苏芮”台风东侧新生热带扰动的强度、位置预报存在偏差,是产生较大路径预报偏差的原因。(3)“杜苏芮”登陆前形成双眼墙结构增加了登陆强度预报的难度,有利的形势条件和多源观测资料的应用为台风强度预报提供了良好的支撑。(4)“杜苏芮”登陆后,来自西南季风和第6号台风“卡努”共同的水汽输送、太行山地形作用以及移动路径上弱的垂直风切变均有利于台风减弱后的低压环流长时间维持。The main characteristic of Typhoon Doksuri(2305)are summarized,and the difficulties in its forecast are also analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)Typhoon Doksuri is characterized by its strong landfall intensity,which,for the year 2023,is the strongest typhoon that makes landfall in China by October.Sustaining on land for a long time after landing,it breaks the historical records of wind and precipitation at multiple stations in places such as Fujian and Anhui,and brings historically extreme heavy rainfall to Huang-Huai region and North China.(2)After the genesis of Doksuri,as the circulations that affect the subtropical high are complicated,the numerical prediction of the intensity and location for the newborn tropical disturbance on the east of Doksuri has deviations,which is responsible for the track forecast errors.(3)The formation of double eyewall structure before Doksuri lands increases the difficulty of predicting the landfall intensity,while the favorable circulations and the application of multiple observations are supportive of the typhoon intensity prediction.(4)The sustainable water vapor transport from the southwest monsoon and Typhoon Khanun(2306),the terrain effect of Taihang Mountain,and the weak vertical wind shear along the typhoon track jointly help the tropical depression maintain for a long time after Doksuri makes landfall.

关 键 词：台风“杜苏芮” 预报难点 预报偏差 热带扰动 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458.124