基于Moran过程的建筑行业施工人员安全行为随机演化博弈分析  

Stochastic Evolution Game Analysis of Safety Behavior of Construction Workers in the Construction Industry Based on the Moran Process

作　　者：尹朝阳 庞奇志[1] 王柯钧 张欣仪 YIN Chaoyang;PANG Qizhi;WANG Kejun;ZHANG Xinyi(Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2023年第6期73-80,共8页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：为控制施工人员的不安全行为,改善建筑行业严峻的安全形势,从成本-收益角度对建筑行业施工人员的行为选择展开随机演化博弈分析。为获得更为真实的博弈结果,将前景理论引入随机演化博弈分析中,构建了建筑行业施工人员博弈收益感知矩阵,考虑从众心理对施工人员行为策略选择的影响,基于Moran过程提出了一种新的行为策略选择更新机制;通过将修正后的博弈收益感知矩阵和博弈分析方法应用于建筑行业施工人员的行为决策研究中,并通过分析强、弱选择下施工人员的行为演化动态,运用Matlab软件对施工人员的行为选择策略进行数值模拟,得到了建筑施工现场具有最佳安全状态时需要满足的4个条件以及影响系统安全状态的因素。该研究结果可为制定针对性的对策措施,降低建筑施工安全风险提供依据。To prevent the unsafe behavior of construction workers and improve the severe safety situation in the construction industry,a game analysis is carried out on the behavioral decisions of construction wor-kers,considering the cost and benefit.In order to obtain more realistic game results,a new behavioral decision updating mechanism is proposed based on Moran process by introducing the foreground theory in the game analysis of stochastic evolution to construct an game income perception matrix for construction wor-kers in comstruction industry and considering the influence of herd psychology on strategy imitation.The modified game income perception matrix and analytical method are applied to the behavioral decision-making research on construction workers in construction industry.By analyzing the behavior evolution dynamics under strong and weak selection and using Matlab to simulate the behavioral selection strategies of construction workers numerically,four conditions need to be met for the best safety state of the construction site.The factors that affect the safety state of the system are obtained,which can provide a valuable reference for developing targeted countermeasures and reducing construction safety risks.

关 键 词：建筑行业 施工人员 安全行为决策 Moran过程 随机演化博弈分析 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]