考虑参与碳交易市场的大规模屋顶光伏经济性分析  

Economic analysis of large-scale rooftop photovoltaics considering carbon trading market

作　　者：周鹏[1] 朱晓彤[1] 吴俊[1] 宋晓健 张曼 李兵[1] ZHOU Peng;ZHU Xiaotong;WU Jun;SONG Xiaojian;ZHANG Man;LI Bing(NR Electric Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 211102,China)

机构地区：[1]南京南瑞继保电气有限公司,江苏南京211102

出　　处：《电力工程技术》2023年第6期83-90,共8页Electric Power Engineering Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFB1502904)。

摘　　要：屋顶光伏迎来大规模发展,同时随着我国碳交易市场的不断完善,大规模屋顶光伏发电所产生的碳指标可通过企业履约或者参与碳交易市场进行交易,从而获得除电费以外的收益。针对大规模屋顶光伏项目如何参与到碳交易市场以及进行碳交易对项目经济性的影响程度问题,文中首先研究屋顶光伏项目参与碳交易市场的路径和方法;其次,基于发电模型,建立含碳交易收益的屋顶光伏全寿命周期经济性模型;然后,为了定量分析碳交易收益,提出一种基于差分阈值滤波法的改进灰色预测GM(1,1)模型对未来碳价进行预测;最后,对大规模屋顶光伏应用场景进行算例分析。结果表明,考虑参与碳交易市场的大规模屋顶光伏具有较为显著的经济性提升。Due to the large-scale development of rooftop photovoltaics and the continuous improvement of the national carbon trading market,the carbon credits generated by rooftop photovoltaics power generation can obtain additional income through carbon allocation offset or participation in carbon trading market.Firstly,the path and methods of participating in the carbon trading market for rooftop photovoltaic projects are studied,focusing on how large-scale rooftop photovoltaic projects participate in the carbon trading market and the degree of impact on the project′s economy.Secondly,the life-cycle economic model of rooftop photovoltaic with carbon trading income is established based on the power generation model.Thirdly,in order to quantitatively analyze the income of carbon trading,an improved grey prediction GM(1,1)model based on the differential threshold filtering method is proposed to predict the future carbon price.Finally,an example of large-scale rooftop photovoltaic is analyzed.The results show that large-scale rooftop photovoltaic considering participation in the carbon trading market has a relatively significant economic improvement.

关 键 词：屋顶光伏 碳交易市场 中国碳排放配额(CEA) 中国核证自愿减排量(CCER) 差分阈值滤波法 灰色预测 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]