我国能源安全形势技术分析  

Technical analysis of China′s energy security situation

作　　者：李锦煜 刘锐剑 周朝阳 栗楠 唐方成 LI Jinyu;LIU Ruijian;ZHOU Chaoyang;LI Nan;TANG Fangcheng(School of Economics&Management,Beijing University of Chemical Technology,Beijing 100029,China;China Huaneng Group Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100031,China)

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学经济管理学院,北京100029 [2]中国华能集团有限公司,北京100031

出　　处：《电力工程技术》2023年第6期249-255,共7页Electric Power Engineering Technology

基　　金：北京市社会科学基金项目(21LLYJB103)。

摘　　要：能源安全作为国家安全体系的重要组成部分,对于我国社会主义现代化强国建设至关重要。文中以国际能源署对能源安全的定义为基础,从生产保障能力、进口多元程度、经济可承受性3个维度构建能源安全评价指标体系。在此基础上,提出运用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)-熵权法-改进逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)的组合评价方法,得到不受评价范围、评价期影响且相对固定的能源安全指数。通过综合评价中美两国2015年—2021年能源安全水平,得出中美两国能源安全指数变化趋势。结果表明,我国在能源供应保障能力、用能成本等方面具有较大的提升空间,仍须进一步提高我国能源生产能力,加快构建新型能源体系,提升能源自给率,扩大能源国际合作规模,降低用能成本,保障能源安全。As an important part of the national security system,energy security is of great importance to the construction of a modern and powerful socialist country in China.Based on the definition of energy security by the International Energy Agency,an evaluation index system of energy security is constructed from three dimensions:production guarantee capacity,import diversification degree and economic affordability.On this basis,analytical hierarchy process(AHP)-entropy weight method-improved technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)evaluation method are combined to obtain relatively fixed energy security index which is not affected by evaluation range and evaluation period.Through the comprehensive evaluation of energy security levels of China and the United States from 2015 to 2021,the change trends of energy security indices of China and the United States are obtained.The results show that China has vast improvement in energy supply guarantee capacity and energy consumption cost,and still needs to further improve China′s energy production capacity,accelerate the construction of a new energy system,enhance energy self-sufficiency,expand the scale of international energy cooperation,reduce energy consumption costs,and ensure energy security.

关 键 词：能源安全 层次分析法(AHP) 逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS) 一次能源 生产保障能力 进口多元程度 经济可承受性 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]