基于贝叶斯网络模型的高速公路建设风险机制演化分析  

Evolutionary Analysis of Highway Construction Risk Mechanism Based on Bayesian Network Model

作　　者：张国华 王金成 ZHANG Guo-hua;WANG Jin-cheng(Ningxia Runtong Highway Engineering Testing Co.,Ltd.,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750000,China;Changchun Institute of Optics,Fine Mechanics&Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun,Jilin 130033,China;University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100039,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏润通公路工程试验检测有限公司,宁夏银川750000 [2]中国科学院长春光学精密机械与物理研究所,吉林长春130033 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100039

出　　处：《黑龙江交通科技》2023年第11期170-173,共4页Communications Science and Technology Heilongjiang

摘　　要：为了研究高速公路建设过程中的风险致因因素对整体的影响,提高风险应对能力。依据优化的德尔菲风险识别流程和故障树的最小割集算法,结合贝叶斯网络概率理论对黎霍高速建设风险机制进行了定性和定量分析。建立了次级衍生事故和顶事件之间的概率分析模型。结果表明,施工设备自身因素、施工前的交通环境因素和道路基建因素导致顶事件发生的概率分别为为39.5%、42.8%和46.4%,其他因素均在30%的安全概率之内。该分析模型不仅将人为因素、施工因素和道路环境等因素进行了有机统一,还为高速公路建设提供了可靠的风险控制机理。In order to analyze the influence of risk factors on the whole process of highway construction,and improve the risk coping capability.With the optimal Delphi risk identification process and the minimum cut-set algorithm of fault tree,combined with the Bayesian network probability theory,a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the risk mechanism of Lihuo Expressway construction was conducted.The probabilistic analytical model between secondary derived accidents and top events was developed.The results show that the probability of top event due to construction equipment's own factors is 39.5%,the probability of top event due to pre-construction traffic environment factors is 42.8%,and other factors are within 30%safety probability.The results show that the probability of top event due to construction equipment's own factors is 39.5%,the probability of top event due to pre-construction traffic environment factors is 42.8%,and other factors are within 30%safety probability.The analysis model not only organically unifies human factors,construction factors,and road environment factors,but also provides a reliable risk control mechanism for highway construction.

关 键 词：高速公路建设 贝叶斯网络 最小割集算法 故障树模型 

分 类 号：U415.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]