已婚女性流动人口生育两孩的影响因素分析--基于江浙沪的数据分析  

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Married Female Floating Population Having Two Children:Based on the Data Analysis of Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai

作　　者：郑雨馨 吴玉霞[2] 米红[1] ZHENG Yu-xin;WU Yu-xia;MI Hong(School of Public Affairs,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou Zhejiang,310058,China;“One Elderly One Young”Development Research Institute,Ningbo University of Technology,Ningbo Zhejiang,315211,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,杭州310058 [2]宁波工程学院“一老一小”发展研究院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《西北人口》2023年第6期100-114,共15页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：浙江省社会科学院青年重大项目“浙江乡村社会文化变迁及其价值重塑研究”(21QNYC03ZD);浙江省社会科学院重大项目“从‘未富先老’到‘渐富快老’中国人口老龄化多状态预测与养老政策仿真研究(2018~2070年)”(19YSXK03ZD)。

摘　　要：2016年全面二孩政策推行后,我国经历了短暂的二孩生育潜能释放期,而后多项生育支持政策遇冷,对提升总和生育率收效甚微。对家庭经济状况影响生育二孩的机制进行理论分析,发现存在高收入女性因高“生育代价”而减少生育二孩的“生存-生育冲突”机制以及女性因乡城流动和家庭化流动同时发生压力更大而减少生育二孩的“双重迁移”机制。为探究已婚女性流动人口生育两孩的影响因素及影响机制,选取2018年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据中流入江浙沪地区的已婚育龄女性(15~49岁),构建核心解释变量为家庭月收入、周工作时间以及亲属幼儿照料的Probit模型。为解决生育二孩与家庭收入之间的内生性问题,将正规就业、长期居留作为工具变量建立IVProbit模型。对全体样本回归后,发现如果忽视内生性问题,将低估高家庭月收入、低女性周工作时长对生育二孩的激励作用,同时也高估了亲属提供幼儿照料变量的正向作用。从生育旺盛期与非生育旺盛期、乡城与城城流动的分组回归结果来看,发现影响机制存在显著差异。分别在引入女性个人月收入与家庭月收入交互项和家庭化迁移与家庭月收入交互项后,发现生育旺盛期女性“生存-生育冲突机制”显著、乡城流动女性“双重迁移机制”显著。由于上述机制的存在,仅仅通过调节家庭收入对生育二孩的激励效果并不明显。需要在此基础上出台更多降低“生育代价”以及家庭化迁移压力的配套政策,探索建立普惠式、社会性别平等式的生育政策支持体系。After the implementation of two-child policy in 2016,China experienced a potential second child fertility release period.Subsequently,various policies supporting childbirth encountered a cool response,resulting in minimal effect on increasing the total fertility rate.The mechanism theoretical analysis of influencing the decision to have a sec-ond child based on the family's economic status reveals the existence of the“survival-fertility conflict”mechanism for high-income women,leading to a reduction in second-child birth which is due to the high cost of childbearing.Addi-tionally,there is a“double migrant”mechanism for women who face greater pressure due to both rural-urban migra-tion and family migration,resulting in a decrease in second-child birth.In order to explore the influencing factors and mechanisms of having a second child for married female floating population,we selected data from 2018 Migrants Popu-lation Dynamic Monitoring Survey of Health and Family planning in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai for married women of childbearing age(15~49 years old).The Probit model was constructed with core explanatory variables including family monthly income,weekly working hours,and child care provided by relatives.To address the endogeneity issue between having a second child and family income,we established an IVProbit model using formal employment and long-term residency as instrumental variables.After conducting the regression analysis on the entire sample,it was found that if endogeneity issues are ignored,the incentive effect of high family monthly income and low female weekly working hours on the decision to have a second child would be underestimated.At the same time,the positive effect of relatives providing childcare would be overestimated.From the results of grouped regression analysis based on the peri-ods of high and low fertility rates,as well as rural-urban and urban-urban migration,significant differences were found in the influencing mechanisms.After introducing the interaction term between w

关 键 词：女性流动人口 生育影响因素 生育友好型社会 家庭支持政策 

分 类 号：C923[社会学—人口学]