区域粮食产量因灾损失评估之长江流域灾情-产量模型再检验  

Assessment Regional Grain Yield Loss Based on Re-examination of Disaster-yield Model across the Middle-lower Yangtze River of China

作　　者：刘园[1] 刘布春[1] 梅旭荣[1] LIU Yuan;LIU Bu-chun;MEI Xu-rong(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,CAAS/National Engineering Laboratory of Efficient Crop Water Use and Disaster Reduction/Key Laboratory of Agricultural Environment,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室/农业农村部农业环境重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2023年第12期1114-1126,共13页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：中国农业科学院基本科研业务费(BSRF201902,Y2023XK03);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS-ZDRW202012);农业农村部政府购买服务项目(152303003)。

摘　　要：利用1949-2020年长江流域(江苏、安徽、浙江、江西、湖北、湖南、上海和四川)耕地面积、粮食种植面积、产量和农业灾情统计数据,分析区域粮食生产与灾情的变化特征;采用已构建的长江流域7省份(江苏、安徽、浙江、江西、湖北、湖南和上海)灾情-产量评估模型,估算各省(市)1949-2020年粮食因灾损失及产量,并构建四川省1949-2020年粮食作物的灾情-产量模型;明确了影响区域粮食产量的主要灾种,构建了主要灾种-产量评估模型,进一步检验了模型构建方法的通用性。结果表明:(1)过去72a,全国、长江流域粮食作物种植面积平均分别为11.60×10^(7)hm^(2)和2.70×10^(7)hm^(2),均呈显著上升趋势(P<0.05),其中沪苏浙川粮食作物种植面积呈显著下降趋势(P<0.05);全流域玉米、小麦、其他作物和稻谷种植面积分别占全区粮食作物种植面积的5.9%、14.9%、34.6%和44.6%,稻谷种植面积增加趋势显著(P<0.05)。(2)1949-2020年,全国、全流域粮食作物产量平均分别为3.67×10^(8)t和1.38×10^(8)t,呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05);全流域玉米、小麦、其他作物和稻谷产量分别占全区粮食作物种植产量的的6.0%、12.0%、11.9%和70.1%,其中稻谷产量显著上升(P<0.05)。同期,全流域和全国粮食作物复种指数分别为138%和214%,均呈下降趋势,尤其浙江省复种指数从1980s的250%降至2010s的100%,降幅较大。(3)研究期内长江流域作物受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积平均分别为1.08×10^(7)hm^(2)、0.48×10^(7)hm^(2)和0.08×10^(7)hm^(2),分别占全国的30.8%、29.2%和28.8%,变异率分别为51.5%、64.4%和115.5%。干旱和洪涝总灾情占比较高,分别占全国粮食作物干旱和洪涝受灾面积、成灾面积和绝收面积74.3%、74.0%、66.9%,低温、风雹和台风引起的总灾情分别占全国的36.6%、32.4%和25.5%。(4)基于已构建的1949-2014年长江流域灾情-产量评估模型,将数据扩展至2020年,对模型�The changes in regional grain production and disaster situation were analyzed from 1949 to 2020 based on statistical data on the area of cultivated land,grain acreage,yields and agricultural disaster situation in the Yangtze river basin.Using the established disaster-yield assessment model,we estimated the loss and yield of grain due to disasters in 7 provinces(municipalities)from 1949 to 2020.The disaster-yield model of grain crops in Sichuan province was constructed.The major disaster species affecting regional grain yield were identified,and the major disaster species-yield assessment model was constructed to further test the generality of the model construction approach.The results showed that:(1)in the past two years,the average planting area of grain crops in China and the whole river basin was 11.60×10^(7)ha and 2.70×10^(7)ha respectively,accounting for 23.3% of the whole country,which showed a significant increasing trend(P<0.05).The planting area of grain crops in Shanghai,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Sichuan showed a significant downward trend(P<0.05).The planting area of maize,wheat,other crops and rice accounted for 5.9%,14.9%,34.6% and 44.6% of the whole basin,respectively.The planting area of rice showed a significant increasing trend(P<0.05).(2)From 1949 to 2020,the average grain crop yield of the whole country and the whole river basin was 3.67×10^(8)t and 1.38×10^(8)t,respectively,accounting for 39.5%of the whole country,showing a significant increasing trend(P<0.05).The yield of corn,wheat,other crops and rice accounted for 6.0%,12.0%,11.9% and 70.1% of the total in the basin,indicating a significant increase in rice production.During the same period,the multiple cropping index for the whole river basin and the whole country was 138%and 214%,respectively,showing a downward trend.In particular,the crop multiplicity index in Zhejiang province dropped dramatically from 250% in the 1980s to 100% in the 2010s.(3)The average area of disaster covered,disaster affected and disaster destroyed area in the Yan

关 键 词：区域农业灾情 因灾损失评估模型 粮食产量 农业气象灾害 受灾面积 成灾面积 绝收面积 

分 类 号：S42[农业科学—植物保护]