基于三生空间的博斯腾湖流域生境质量时空演变及预估  

Evolution and prediction of habitat quality in the Bosten Lake Basin based on production-living-ecological space

作　　者：翟玉鑫 张飞云 马丽娜 ZHAI Yuxin;ZHANG Feiyun;MA Lina(School of Public Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,Xinjiang,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学公共管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2023年第11期1792-1802,共11页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：新疆农业大学研究生科研创新项目(XJAUGRI2022011)资助。

摘　　要：生境质量是衡量区域生态环境优劣的重要指标,对干旱半干旱流域地区的生境质量进行研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。基于自然地理、遥感影像等多源数据,运用重心迁移、InVEST模型等研究方法,揭示1980—2020年博斯腾湖流域生境质量的时空演变规律,采用FLUS模型对2025年和2030年的土地利用时空演变进行模拟,阐明不同土地利用变化情景下生境质量时空演变格局。结果表明:(1)1980—2020年,博斯腾湖流域生境质量平均值由0.546降至0.521。高质量区域面积大幅缩减,区域重心向北迁移;生境低质量区域面积增加且重心向东北方向迁移。流域总体生境退化强度有所减弱。(2)自然发展情景下,流域工业生产用地和其他生态用地面积大幅增加;生态优先发展情景下,流域水域生态用地发展趋势由减转增,并向草地生态用地和其他生态用地迁移;经济优先发展情景下,焉耆盆地与绿洲平原的城镇生活用地和工业生产用地边界得到扩张。研究结果可以为干旱半干旱流域地区土地利用规划及生境质量改善提供科学依据。Habitat quality is an important index for measuring the quality of the regional ecological environment.Its study in arid and semi-arid watershed areas holds both theoretical and practical importance.Based on multisource data such as natural geography and remote sensing images,this study uses research methods such as the center of gravity migration and the InVEST model.This study aims to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution law of habitat quality in the Bosten Lake Basin of Xinjiang,China,from 1980 to 2020.This study also uses the FLUS model to simulate the temporal and spatial evolution of land use in 2025 and 2030,shedding light on the corresponding habitat quality shifts under different land use change prospects.The results can be summarized as follows:(1)From 1980 to 2020,the average habitat quality in the Bosten Lake Basin decreased from 0.546 to 0.521.High-quality habitat areas were greatly reduced,with the regional center of gravity shifting northward.Conversely,low-quality habitat areas expanded and their center of gravity moved northeastward.Notably,the overall intensity of habitat degradation in the watershed weakened during this period.(2)Under the natural development scenario,industrial production land and other ecological land have increased substantially in the Bosten Lake Basin.Meanwhile,in the ecological priority development scenario,the development trend of water ecological land shifted from decline to growth and moved to grassland ecological land and other ecological lands in the Bosten Lake Basin.In the economic development priority scenario,the boundary between urban living land and industrial production land in the Yanqi Basin and oasis plain expanded.This study provides a scientific basis for land use planning and habitat quality improvement in arid and semi-arid basin areas.

关 键 词：生境质量 时空演变 预估 FLUS-InVEST模型 博斯腾湖流域 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]