汉江流域暴雨天气学概念模型分析  

Analysis of conceptual synoptic model of typical rainstorm in Hanjiang River Basin

作　　者：訾丽 王志良 张方伟 王乐 ZI Li;WANG Zhiliang;ZHANG Fangwei;WANG Le(Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430010,China;Hanjiang Water Resources&Hydropower Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430048,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [2]汉江水利水电(集团)有限责任公司,湖北武汉430010 [3]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第11期43-50,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：汉江集团科研项目“现状人类活动条件下的汉江流域暴雨洪水特征及规律研究”(H202112);国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002701)。

摘　　要：为提高汉江流域的降水预报能力,利用1960~2021年的降水资料和探空资料,分析了汉江流域暴雨的区域特征,通过典型过程选取、关键天气系统辨识等方法建立了汉江流域典型暴雨的天气学概念模型。选取了2022年汉江流域上中游暴雨过程,采用天气学原理辨识中高低层关键天气系统的配置及位置进而对暴雨天气学概念模型进行了验证。结果表明:(1)汉江流域上中游及汉江流域暴雨多发生在5~10月,汉江流域下游暴雨多发生在3~10月,夏季暴雨发生频率均高于秋季,且汉江流域下游暴雨及大暴雨日数最多。因此,可根据暴雨的特点将汉江暴雨划分为流域型暴雨、上中游型暴雨和下游型暴雨。(2)针对汉江流域型暴雨,建立了槽前切变低涡型、低空切变急流型、槽及两高辐合型、高空深槽型4种天气学概念模型;针对汉江上中游型暴雨,建立了低空切变急流型和两高辐合型两种天气学概念模型;针对汉江流域下游型暴雨,建立了槽前切变型、偏南气流型、槽后切变型3种天气学概念模型。(3)2022年汉江流域上中游暴雨过程验证结果符合汉江流域上中游低空切变急流型概念模型。In order to improve the precipitation forecasting capability of Hanjiang River Basin,this paper analyzes the regional characteristics of heavy rainfall in Hanjiang River Basin by using the precipitation datasets and sounding data from 1960 to 2021,then constructs a conceptual synoptic model of typical rainstorm based on typical process selection and identification of key weather system.This paper selects the heavy rainfall process in the upper and middle reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin in 2022,and uses the synoptic principle to identify the configuration and location of the key weather systems in the high and low levels to verify the accuracy of rainstorm conceptual synoptic model.The results show that:①The rainstorm in upper and middle reaches of Hanjiang River Basin usually occurs from May to October,while the rainfall for lower reaches of Hanjiang River Basin occurs from March to October.Rainstorms in the summer occur more frequently than those in the fall,and the number of days of heavy rainfall and torrential rain in the lower reaches of the Hanjiang River Basin is the most.Therefore,based on the characteristics of rainstorm,the rainstorm of Hanjiang River Basin can be divided into three kinds of rainstorm in basin-scale,upper-middle reaches scale and lower reaches scale.②Four types of conceptual synoptic models of front-trough shear low pressure vortex,low-level shear jet,trough and two high-pressure converge and upper-level trough are developed for the rainstorm in basin-scale.For the rainstorm in upper-middle reaches scale,two types of conceptual synoptic models of shear jet stream and two high pressure converges are developed.And for the rainstorm in lower reaches scale,three types of conceptual synoptic models of front-trough shear,southerly jet steam and after-trough shear are developed.③The rainstorm process in the upper and middle reaches of Hanjiang River Basin in 2022 are consistent with the lower-pressure shear conceptual model.

关 键 词：天气学概念模型 暴雨特征 典型暴雨过程 汉江流域 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]