丹江口水库入库洪水概率预报及调度风险分析  

Probabilistic forecasting on inflowing flood to Danjiangkou Reservoir and scheduling risk analysis

作　　者：王伟 王乐 田逸飞[2] 崔震 WANG Wei;WANG Le;TIAN Yifei;CUI Zhen(Hanjiang Water Resources&Hydropower Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430048,China;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commision,Wuhan 430010,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]汉江水利水电(集团)有限责任公司,湖北武汉430048 [2]长江水利委员会水文局,湖北武汉430010 [3]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第11期60-67,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002701,2021YFC3200301);汉江集团科研项目“面向精细化调度需求的汉江流域水文气象预报新技术方法研究”(H202114)。

摘　　要：为了科学表示洪水预报中的不确定性和风险信息,以丹江口水库为研究对象,基于Copula贝叶斯方法开展丹江口水库入库洪水流量概率预报,从概率预报期望值的精度、预报区间的优良性以及整体性能3个方面对概率预报结果进行评价,并在此基础上进行丹江口水库调度风险策略分析。结果表明:随着预见期的延长,丹江口水库流量概率预报的不确定性相应增加,精度有所降低;各预见期的概率预报区间总体合理可靠,区间覆盖率均超过0.87;概率预报期望值精度较确定性预报略有提升,不同预见期的连续概率排位分数CRPS始终小于相应的确定性预报的平均绝对误差MAE,较确定性预报MAE的降低幅度均超过25%。研究成果可提供不同方案下水库水位超目标水位的风险信息,为科学风险调度决策提供参考。In order to scientifically express the uncertainty and risk information in flood forecasting,this paper implements a probabilistic forecast on the inflowing flood to Danjiangkou Reservoir based on the Copula Bayesian forecast processor.The probabilistic forecast results are evaluated in terms of the accuracy of the expected value,the goodness of the forecast interval and the overall performance,and a risk strategy analysis on the reservoir scheduling is carried out.The results show that the uncertainty of the probabilistic flow forecasts of Danjiangkou Reservoir increases and the accuracy decreases as the forecast period extends.The probabilistic forecast intervals of each forecast period are generally reasonable and reliable,with the coverage rate of the intervals exceeding 0.87.Compared with the deterministic forecast,the accuracy of the probabilistic forecast expectation is slightly improved,and the Continuous Ranked Probability Score(CRPS)values for different forecast periods are always smaller than the Mean Absolute Error(MAE)of the deterministic forecast,with a reduction of more than 25%.The research results can provide risk information on the reservoir's water level exceeding the target level under different scenarios,which can provide a reference for scientific risk scheduling decisions.

关 键 词：入库洪水 概率预报 COPULA 贝叶斯 调度风险 丹江口水库 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学] TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]