基于云模型-熵权法的大坝风险等级评价  

Dam risk level evaluation based on cloud model-entropy weight method

作　　者：高强 彭秀华 GAO Qiang;PENG Xiuhua(Guoneng Dadu River Hydroelectricity Development Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610041,China)

机构地区：[1]国能大渡河流域水电开发有限公司,四川成都610041

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第11期208-213,共6页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51974055)。

摘　　要：大坝溃坝会造成灾难性的人员伤亡和经济损失,因此准确评价大坝的风险等级并及时加以防治对大坝安全运营至关重要。以大岗山高拱坝为工程依托,针对大坝稳定性影响因素具有复杂性和随机性的特点,提出了采用云模型评价单因素风险等级和熵权法综合评价大坝安全等级的思路。首先详细分析了影响大坝稳定性的风险因素,确定了大坝稳定性影响因素评估指标体系,并借助专家打分的方式,获得了各因素的影响分值;然后在此基础上利用云模型划分了25个三级风险指标的风险等级,结果显示均位于中风险和高风险等级区间;最后采用熵权法确定各三级指标的综合权重,计算出大岗山高拱坝稳定性加权分数5.69分,对应安全等级Ⅲ级。实践表明,云模型-熵权法评估结果可靠,符合工程实际,可为大坝风险评价提供借鉴。Dam break will cause catastrophic loss of life and economic damage.Therefore,it is essential to evaluate the risk of the dams accurately and prevent it in time for the safe operation.Based on Dagangshan high arch dam,the cloud model was used to evaluate single-factor risk level and the entropy weight method was used to comprehensively evaluate dam safety level according to the complexity and randomness of dam stability influencing factors.Firstly,we analyzed the risk factors affecting the dam's stability in detail,determined the evaluation index system of the factors affecting the dam's stability,and obtained the influence scores of each factor using expert scoring.On this basis,the cloud model was used to divide the risk level of 25 three-level risk indicators,and the results show that the risk indicators were located in the middle and high-risk level intervals.Finally,the entropy weight method was used to determine the total weight of each three-level index.The stability-weighted score of the Dagangshan high arch dam was 5.69 points,corresponding to the safety level of III.The evaluation results of the cloud model-entropy weight method are reliable and in line with engineering practice,which can provide a reference for dam risk evaluation.

关 键 词：高拱坝 风险评价 云模型 熵权法 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]