高速铁路网络延误传播分析  

Analysis of high-speed railway network delay propagation

作　　者：王璞[1] 谭淮锐 郭宝 周慧 WANG Pu;TAN Huairui;GUO Bao;ZHOU Hui(School of Traffic&Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《国防科技大学学报》2023年第6期157-164,共8页Journal of National University of Defense Technology

基　　金：科技部国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB1200401)。

摘　　要：针对既有方法研究高速铁路网络中延误传播规律的局限性,基于高速列车实绩运行数据和列车时刻表数据构建站点延误传播贝叶斯网络模型。结合复杂网络中的渗流理论研究延误传播团簇的演变规律,并以最大延误传播团簇中的南京南站和第二大延误传播团簇中的长沙南站为例,分析处于渗流突变状态下的站点延误传播贝叶斯网络。提出基于核心延误传播团簇的站点延误状态预测模型。结果表明:网络中的站点可按延误传播特征分为延误发散站点、延误传递站点和延误消散站点。延误发散站点不仅能直接将延误传播至邻近站点,还能通过延误传播链将延误传播至较远地区的站点。由此网络以部分延误发散站点为中心向延误传递站点和延误消散站点进行“辐射式”延误传播。Noted the limitation of existing methods to study the delay propagation mechanism in high-speed railway network,the Bayesian network was used to analyze delay dependencies between stations based on high-speed train operation data and schedule data.The percolation theory of complex network was applied to study the evolution of delay propagation clusters.Nanjingnan Railway Station in the largest delay propagation cluster and Changshanan Railway Station in the second largest delay propagation cluster were taken as examples to analyze the network at percolation threshold.Based on core delay propagation clusters,the station delay state prediction model was established.The results show that stations can be divided into 3 categories,namely,delay generator,delay mediator and delay absorber according to their characteristic in the aspect of delay propagation.Delay generator can not only spread the delay to stations close to them,but also spread the delay to the far away stations through delay propagation chain,which makes the network taking part of the delay generator as the center and spreading delay to the delay mediator and the delay absorber in a radiational delay propagation mode.

关 键 词：延误传播 贝叶斯网络 复杂网络 渗流理论 

分 类 号：N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]