有序的非平衡:京津冀城市群人口系统自组织协同的演化过程——基于历次人口普查数据的分析  

Orderly Disequilibrium:The Evolution Process of Self-Organization and Coordination of Population System in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration:An Analysis Based on Previous Census Data

作　　者：尹德挺[1] 赵政 史毅[2] YIN Deting;ZHAO Zheng;SHI Yi(Beijing Administration Institute,Beijing 100044,China;China Population and Development Research Center,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市委党校,北京100044 [2]中国人口与发展研究中心,北京100081

出　　处：《北京联合大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2023年第6期38-50,共13页Journal of Beijing Union University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：北京市宣传文化高层次人才培养资助项目“建设国际一流和谐宜居之都目标导向下首都人口空间分布优化研究”。

摘　　要：基于系统科学的自组织理论,结合历次人口普查数据,本文研究发现:京津冀城市群人口演化过程具有明显的协同效应、伺服效应和自组织效应,并表现出可预见的发展趋向。第一,形成了首要主导城市、次主导城市、主协作城市、次协作城市的整体协同格局,层级化协同特征较为突出;第二,形成了四大圈层城市结构,圈层化格局特征较为稳定;第三,存在多极→单极→双极、突变→稳态→成长、无序自组织→有序自组织、弱非平衡关系→强非平衡关系的协同阶段趋向,并且在当前双极协同的状况下,正处于由成长状态向突变状态转变的阶段。京津冀城市群人口协同发展将呈现五个方面的特点:有序、非平衡、有序的扩大、非平衡加剧趋势放缓、双极协同向多极协同的潜在趋向发展。Based on the self-organization theory of system science and combined with previous population census data,this paper finds that the population co-evolution process of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has an obvious synergistic effect,servo effect,and self-organization effect,showing a predictable development trend.Firstly,a comprehensive collaborative pattern has been formed with prominent hierarchical collaborative characteristics,including primary leading cities,secondary leading cities,primary collaborative cities,and secondary collaborative cities.Secondly,four major circular urban structures have been formed,and the characteristics of the circular pattern are relatively stable.Thirdly,there are collaborative trends from multipolar to unipolar to bipolar,from mutation to steady state to growth,from disordered self-organization to ordered self-organization,and from weak non-equilibrium relationship to strong non-equilibrium relationship.In the current situation of bipolar coordination,it is in the transition stage from the growth state to the mutation state.The coordinated population development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration will present five characteristics:order,unbalance,orderly expansion,slowing down trend of unbalanced intensification,and potential development from bipolar coordination to multipolar coordination.

关 键 词：京津冀城市群 人口协同 系统自组织 功能地位 协同圈层 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]