双碳目标约束下中俄石油能源合作博弈研究  

Research on the Game Theory of Sino Russian Oil and Energy Cooperation under the Constraint of Dual Carbon Target

作　　者：肖丁萁 XIAO Ding-qi(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150040

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2023年第6期16-22,共7页China Forestry Economics

基　　金：黑龙江省自然基金项目(LH2023G003)。

摘　　要：基于“双碳”目标,石油能源行业降碳行动刻不容缓。采用动态博弈理论模型,以中国石油企业、俄罗斯石油企业、中国政府为三方主体,从碳交易价格、综合收益、减排成本、声誉损失、政府奖惩等方面定义各变量和参数,建立碳交易价格下中俄石油能源合作的复制动态方程,分析策略行为的博弈演化规律。通过分析可知:①碳交易市场可促进石油能源低碳发展,提高碳交易价格能增强中国石油企业积极减排的意愿;②俄罗斯石油企业选择协助时中国石油企业承担的声誉损失越大,中国石油企业更倾向于选择积极减排策略;③政府奖惩措施强度对中国石油企业选择积极减排策略的可能性呈正相关关系。从多方演化博弈视角提出了在政府与俄罗斯石油企业策略拉扯下中国石油企业最优减排策略。Based on the goal of“double carbon”,the action of carbon reduction in petroleum energy is urgent.This paper established the replication dynamic equation of Sino-Russian oil and energy cooperation under carbon trading price with defining the various variables and parameters from the aspects of carbon trading price,comprehensive income,emission reduction cost,reputation loss,government rewards and punishments by taking Chinese petroleum enterprises,Russian petroleum enterprises and Chinese government as three main bodies.Then it adopted the dynamic game theory model to analyze the game evolution law of strategic behavior.Through the analysis,it s concluded that:①Carbon trading market could promote the low-carbon development of oil and energy,and raising the price of carbon trading could enhance the willingness of China s oil companies to actively reduce emissions.②When Russian enterprises chose to assist Chinese enterprises,the greater the reputational loss they bear,the more inclined Chinese enterprises were to choose active emission reduction strategies.③The intensity of government incentives and punishments was positively correlated with the possibility of Chinese oil companies to choose active emission reduction strategies.From the perspective of multi-party evolutionary game,this paper presented the optimal emission reduction strategy of Chinese enterprises under the strategic pull of the government and Russian enterprises,which providing theoretical support and decision-making basis for the carbon reduction action of the oil and energy industry.

关 键 词：中俄石油合作 “双碳目标” 动态演化博弈 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]