西部人口老龄化、产业结构升级与经济高质量发展的互动关系——基于PVAR模型  

The Interaction between Population Aging,Industrial Structure Upgrading and High-quality Economic Development in Western China Based on PVAR Model

作　　者：孙丽萍 周秉柔 SUN Liping;ZHOU Bingrou(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Qujing Normal University,Qujing Yunnan 655011;University of Nottingham Ningbo China,Ningbo Zhejiang 315100,China)

机构地区：[1]曲靖师范学院数学与统计学院,云南曲靖655011 [2]宁波诺丁汉大学,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《曲靖师范学院学报》2023年第6期53-62,共10页Journal of Qujing Normal University

基　　金：云南省地方本科高校基础研究联合专项项目“云南深度参与‘一带一路’国际金融开放合作研究”(202101BA070001-232);曲靖市教育体育局·曲靖师范学院教育科学联合规划项目“基于核心素养的初中数学微课资源开发及应用研究”(QJQSKT2021YB17)。

摘　　要：以我国西部地区2002—2021年的面板数据为例,通过建立PVAR模型,探讨人口老龄化、产业结构升级与经济高质量发展之间的长期动态关系,根据格兰杰因果检验、GMM估计、脉冲相应函数和方差分解结果,得到如下结论:(1)人口老龄化对经济高质量发展,短期内具有正向效应,但长期具有负向影响;(2)人口老龄化对产业结构升级具有逐渐减弱的正向影响;(3)产业结构升级对经济高质量发展具有稳定且持久的正向影响;(4)从方差分解结果看,产业结构升级对经济高质量发展的贡献率占18.4%,人口老龄化对产业结构升级的贡献率达到19.9%.根据研究结论,认为地方政府应积极应对人口老龄化长期的负向冲击,不断提升人力资本水平,有效推动地区产业转型升级,逐步实现经济高质量发展.This paper discusses the long-term dynamic relationship between population aging,industrial structure upgrading and high-quality economic development by establishing a PVAR model by taking the panel data of western China from 2002 to 2021 as an example.Based on Granger causality test,GMM estimation,impulse response function and variance decomposition results,the study show that population aging has a positive effect on high-quality economic development in the short term,but a negative impact in the long term;the aging population has a gradually weakening positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure;the upgrading of industrial structure has a stable and lasting positive impact on high-quality economic development;and from the result of variance decomposition,the contribution rate of industrial structure upgrading to high-quality economic development accounts for 18.4%,and the contribution rate of population aging to industrial structure upgrading reaches 19.9%.According to the research conclusion,local governments should actively respond to the long-term negative impact of population aging,constantly improve the level of human capital,effectively promote the transformation and upgrading of regional industries,and gradually achieve high-quality economic development.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 产业结构升级 经济高质量 PVAR模型 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]