数字经济发展能否改善地区银行业风险?——基于城市商业银行的考察  

Can the Growth of the Digital Economy Mitigate Regional Banking Risks?An Investigation Based on Urban Commercial Banks

作　　者：李子豪 王倩倩 LI Zihao;WANG Qianqian(School of Business,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Yangtze River Institute of International Digital Trade Innovation and Development,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;School of International Business and Economics,Henan University of Economics and Law,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学商学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学扬子江国际数字贸易创新发展研究院,江苏南京210044 [3]河南财经政法大学国际经济与贸易学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《财经论丛》2023年第12期47-57,共11页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY114)。

摘　　要：基于中国城市商业银行的数据,利用面板计量估计方法,从数字经济对银行主动风险和被动风险的差异、数字经济不同渠道影响的分析和数字经济的空间溢出效应等方面,系统考察了数字经济发展对地区银行业风险的影响。研究发现:第一,从主被动风险差异来看,数字经济显著降低了地区银行业被动风险;第二,从作用渠道来看,数字经济可以通过促进企业创新、产业结构升级以及减少经济波动等渠道降低地区银行业风险,也会通过金融深化、加剧银行竞争等渠道增大地区银行业风险;第三,从空间溢出效应来看,本地数字经济发展能够降低邻近地区银行业风险水平,且其降低效果比本地效应更加显著。本研究为数字经济对银行业风险的影响提供了新证据,为中国大力发展数字经济、积极推进银行业数字化转型提供了经验支撑和政策参考。In the era of digital economy,the demands of bank customers show typical characteristics of digitalization,online and intelligence,which has greatly promoted the digital transformation of banks.The involvement of technology companies in internet finance has also brought about drastic changes to the competitive environment of commercial banks.So,digital economy will inevitably have an impact on the risk of regional banking industry.Commercial banks,as the financial industry with the most profound digital transformation,are also the main undertakers of regional financial risks.It is of practical significance to study this issue.This paper uses the risk indicators of major city commercial banks in the region to measure the risk of regional banking industry,and matches the micro-data of 102 city commercial banks in China from 2011 to 2019 with the regional digital economy data to investigate the impact of digital economy on regional banking risk by using a combination of empirical methods.The findings are as follows:Firstly,from the perspective of active and passive risk difference,digital economy significantly reduces the passive risk of regional banking industry,and this conclusion also passes a series of robustness tests such as exogenous shock test and instrumental variable estimation.However,the digital economy will exacerbate active risk-taking in banking.Secondly,the comparison of function channels shows that the digital economy can effectively reduce regional banking risks through promoting enterprise innovation,upgrading industrial structure,reducing economic fluctuations,and the digital economy will also increase banking risks through financial deepening,intensifying bank competition.Thirdly,the development of local digital economy can reduce the level of banking risk in neighboring regions,and this reduction effect is more significant than that in the locality.Finally,in the eastern region and regions with developed digital economy,the positive effect of digital economy on restraining financial risks is mo

关 键 词：数字经济 城市商业银行 银行被动风险 银行主动风险 空间溢出 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]