东北漫川漫岗区极端降水时空变化特征  

Spatio-Temporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation in Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China

作　　者：李晓玉 王晓伟 谷佳桐 赵海根 孙琛[1] 游松财[1] LI Xiao-yu;WANG Xiao-wei;GU Jia-tong;ZHAO Hai-gen;SUN Chen;YOU Song-cai(Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;Agronomy College of Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [2]沈阳农业大学农学院,辽宁沈阳110866

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第12期1-4,18,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFD0300400)。

摘　　要：为探讨东北漫川漫岗区极端降水时空变化特征,基于东北漫川漫岗区1981~2015年79个气象站点逐日降水数据,建立极端降水指标体系,采用气候倾向率法、变差系数C_(V)、M-K突变检验法、R/S分析法、GIS空间分析法综合分析了东北漫川漫岗区极端降水强度、频率、持续性指数的时空变化特征。结果表明,1981~2015年东北漫川漫岗区降水极端性整体呈减弱趋势,R×1day、R×5day、R12D、R50D、CRED分别以-0.5mm/10a、-2.1 mm/10a、-0.2 d/10a、0.02 d/10a、0.03 d/10a的速率减小;强度指数的年代变化呈“升-降-升”状态,频率指数与持续性指数的年代变化皆呈“降-升”状态,2010年代较2000年代上升12.5%~15.0%;频率指数R50D的C_(V)值为0.45,波动剧烈,其他指数的C_(V)值小于0.2,波动幅度较小;R50D与CRED分别在1988、1990年发生突变,在突变点前呈增加趋势,突变点后呈减弱趋势;极端降水指数未来变化趋势与历史变化趋势相反,降水极端性加剧;极端降水呈自东南向西北逐渐减少的分布规律,与1980年代相比,1990年代大部地区极端性有所增加,2000年代极端性减弱,2010年代东北漫川漫岗区南部极端降水强度减轻、频率降低、持续性减弱,北部高海拔地区极端降水强度增强,频率增加,极端降水发生风险较大。该研究可为制定东北漫川漫岗区应对极端降水侵蚀风险的策略提供理论依据。To explore temporal and spatial variations of extreme precipitation in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China,a set of extreme precipitation evaluation indicators was established using the daily precipitation data from 79 meteorological stations covering the period from 1981 to 2015.The intensity,frequency and persistence of extreme precipitation were analyzed using various methods,including linear trend estimation,coefficient of variation,Mann-Kendall test,R/S analysis,and GIS spatial analysis.The results show that from 1981 to 2015,the overall extreme precipitation showed a weakening trend in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China;R×1day,R×5day,R12D,R50D,and CRED decreased at rates of-0.5 mm/10a,-2.1 mm/10a,-0.2 d/10a,0.02 d/10a and 0.03 d/10a,respectively.The interdecade variation of the intensity index showed a state of"rise-fall-rise",and the annual change of frequency index and persistence index showed a"fall-rise"form,which increased by 12.5%-15%in the 2010s compared with the 2000s.The C_(V)value of frequency index R50D is 0.45,which fluctuates sharply,and the C_(V)value of other indices is less than 0.2,and the fluctuation range is small.R50D and CRED experienced abrupt changes in 1988 and 1990,respectively,and exhibited an increasing trend before the mutation points and a weakening trend after that.Extreme precipitation increased during the 1990s,weakened in most areas during the 2000s,and intensified in both frequency and intensity in the northern highaltitude areas of the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China in the 2010s,while it reduced in the Southern Regions.This study can provide a theoretical basis for formulating strategies to cope with extreme precipitation risks in the Rolling Hilly Region of Northeast China.

关 键 词：极端降水指数 MANN-KENDALL检验 R/S分析 东北漫川漫岗区 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]