1960~2020年千岛湖流域水资源情势演变分析  

Analysis on the Evolution of Water Resources Situation in Qiandao Lake Basin from 1960 to 2020

作　　者：董颢 杜军凯[1,2] 王蓓卿 仇亚琴 吕向林[1,2] 郝春沣 DONG Hao;DU Jun-kai;WANG Bei-qing;QIU Ya-qin;LV Xiang-lin;HAO Chun-feng(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100044,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,Beijing 100038,China;Hydrology Management Center of Zhejiang Province,Hangzhou 310009,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100044 [2]流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]浙江省水文管理中心,浙江杭州310009

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第12期14-18,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279030);国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3201101,2021YFC3201105)。

摘　　要：针对气候变化条件下千岛湖流域水资源演变情势,建立WEP-L分布式水文模型模拟流域1960~2020年水循环过程,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法和Hurst指数法分析流域水资源总量年际变化、年内分配特征,评价了千岛湖流域水资源量时空分布与演变趋势。结果表明,WEP-L模型在千岛湖流域模拟结果较好,率定期的Nash系数在0.83以上,验证期的Nash系数在0.85以上;全流域产水系数在0.436~0.630之间,多年平均水资源总量122.5×10^(8)m^(3),折合产水深1176.4 mm,年内分配过程呈单峰型结构,各子流域产水深范围在742~1266 mm,空间分布呈西高东低;流域年水资源总量系列呈不显著上升趋势,Hurst指数0.86,存在上升的持续性;从月度水资源量来看,1、2月显著增加,其余月份变化均不显著。Aiming at the evolution of water resources in Qiandao Lake Basin under the condition of climate change,a WEP-L distributed hydrological model was established to simulate the water cycle process in the basin during 1960-2020.The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test method and Hurst index method were used to analyze the inter-annual variation and annual distribution characteristics of the total water resources in the basin.The temporal and spatial distribution and evolution trend of water resources in Qiandao Lake Basin were evaluated.The results indicate that The WEP-L model performs well in simulation the Qiandao Lake basin,and the Nash coefficient rate is above 0.83 in the calibration period and above 0.85 in the verification period;The water yield coefficient of the whole basin ranges from 0.436 to 0.630.The annual average total water resource is 122.5×108m3,equivalent to 1176.4 mm of water depth.The annual distribution process shows a unimodal structure,and the water depth of each sub-basin ranges from 742 mm to 1266 mm,and the spatial distribution is higher in the west and lower in the east;The annual water resources series in the basin show an insignificant upward trend,and the Hurst index is 0.86,indicating a continuous upward trend.From the perspective of monthly water resources,January and February increased significantly,the other months were not significant changes.

关 键 词：WEP-L模型 水资源演变 千岛湖流域 气候变化 

分 类 号：X832[环境科学与工程—环境工程] TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]