基于DPSIR模型和熵权模糊综合评价的郑州市水循环健康状态预测  

Prediction of Water Cycle Health State in Zhengzhou Based on DPSIR Model and Entropy Weight Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

作　　者：邱瑨豪 王富强[1,2] 吕素冰 赵衡[1] 张红璐 QIU Jin-hao;WANG Fu-qiang;LV Su-bing;ZHAO Heng;ZHANG Hong-lu(College of Water Resources,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Key Laboratory of Conservation and Intensive Utilization of Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学水资源学院,河南郑州450046 [2]河南省黄河流域水资源节约集约利用重点实验室,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第12期45-48,35,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279014,51879106);中原科技创新领军人才计划(214200510001);河南省高校科技创新团队支持计划(20IRTSTHN010);郑州市软科学研究计划重点(重大)项目(2020RKXF0090)。

摘　　要：水循环的健康状况是区域高质量发展的关键因素。水循环健康状态预测对区域水资源系统、经济社会系统和生态环境系统协调发展具有重要意义。以郑州市为典型研究区,构建了城市水循环健康评价DPSIR模型,运用熵权模糊综合评价方法分析了郑州市2010~2020年水循环健康状况演化过程;采用系统动力学模型和熵权模糊综合评价方法预测了综合协调型、经济发展型、水资源优化型等5种类型下郑州市2021~2030年的水循环健康状态。结果表明,近10年郑州市水循环健康状况向好发展,人均GDP、城市化率、水资源管理智慧化水平等指标达到“健康”状态;5种预测情景下城市水循环均达到“亚健康”及以上状态,在兼顾经济发展、生态保护、水资源优化的综合协调型情景下郑州市水循环健康状况达到“健康”状态,该方案为最优方案。研究结果可为郑州市生态保护和高质量发展提供理论依据和技术支持。The health of the water cycle is a key factor in high-quality regional development.The prediction of water cycle health state is of great significance to the coordinated development of regional water resources system,economic and social system and ecological environment system.Taking Zhengzhou City as a typical research area,this study constructed a DPSIR model for urban water cycle health evaluation,and analyzed the evolution process of water cycle health status in Zhengzhou from 2010 to 2020 by using entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The system dynamics model and entropy weight fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method were used to predict the health status of water cycle in Zhengzhou from 2021 to 2030 under five types of comprehensive coordination type,economic development type and water resources optimization type.The results show that the health status of water cycle in Zhengzhou has been developing well in the past decade,and the indicators of per capita GDP,urbanization rate and intelligent water resources management have reached the"healthy"state.Under the five prediction scenarios,the urban water cycle reaches the state of"subhealth"or above,and under the comprehensive coordination scenario that takes into account economic development,ecological protection and water resources optimization,the water cycle health status of Zhengzhou reaches the state of"health",and this scheme is the optimal scheme.The results can provide theoretical basis and technical support for ecological protection and high quality development in Zhengzhou City.

关 键 词：水循环健康 熵权法 DPSIR模型 系统动力学 郑州市 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]