“一带一路”倡议提高了人民币的“隐性锚”效应吗?——基于Rolling Regression和Frankel-Wei锚测度模型  

Has the Belt and Road Initiative Boosted the RMB’s“Recessive Anchor”Effect?——Based on Rolling Regression and Frankel-Wei Anchor Measure Model

作　　者：陈娜 胡壬彦[2] CHEN Na;HU Renyan(School of Economics,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350017,China;Faculty of Economics and Law,Concord University College Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350017,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学经济学院,福建福州350017 [2]福建师范大学协和学院经济与法学系,福建福州350017

出　　处：《福建商学院学报》2023年第4期14-24,共11页Journal of Fujian Business University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“共同富裕进程中资本规范健康发展研究”(22BKS178)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议开创了中国对外开放新格局,也为人民币国际化带来新机遇。基于Frankel-Wei经典锚测度模型,选取50个“一带一路”沿线国家在2010年7月—2022年8月的月度汇率数据,采用普通最小二乘法和滚动窗口回归(Rolling Regression)方法,分阶段、分区域测算人民币对“一带一路”区块货币的隐性锚效应。“一带一路”倡议的推进使人民币的货币锚地位有了质的转变,成为国际货币的后起之秀,但人民币的锚作用国家主要集中于东南亚、南亚和中亚地区,辐射范围仍然有限,且容易受到外界不可抗力因素的干扰。应持续推动“一带一路”高质量发展,探索人民币锚效应稳步提升的有效途径,促使人民币成为“一带一路”丝路货币。The Belt and Road Initiative has started a new pattern of opening-up in China and brought new opportunities for the internationalization of the RMB.Based on the Frankel-Wei classical anchor measure model,this paper selected monthly exchange rate data of 50 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative from July 2010 to August 2022,using ordinary least square method and Rolling Regression method to measure the recessive anchor effect of RMB on the currencies in the Belt and Road Initiative area by stages and regions.The deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative has made a qualitative change in the currency anchorage position of RMB,becoming a rising star of international currencies.However,the anchor role of RMB is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia,South Asia and Central Asia,where its radiation scope is still limited and it is vulnerable to external force majeure factors.Therefore,high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative should be continuously promoted.We will explore effective ways to steadily increase the anchor effect of RMB and make RMB the Silk Road currency of the Belt and Road Initiative.

关 键 词：一带一路 隐性锚效应 人民币国际化 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]