替代还是创造:智能化如何影响中国制造业就业?  

Substitution or Creation:How Intelligentization Affects China’s Manufacturing Employment

作　　者：曹雅茹 刘军 邵军[4] Cao Yaru;Liu Jun;Shao Jun(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106;School of Digital Economy and Management,Wuxi University,Wuxi 214105;School of Management Science and Engineering,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044;School of Economics and Management/Center for Digital Economy Research,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,南京211106 [2]无锡学院数字经济与管理学院,无锡214105 [3]南京信息工程大学管理工程学院,南京210044 [4]东南大学经济管理学院/东南大学数字经济研究中心,南京211189

出　　处：《管理评论》2023年第9期37-49,共13页Management Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJA790055);国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD095)。

摘　　要：本文分析了智能化对中国制造业就业的影响机理,并基于中国2010—2019年的省级面板数据,实证检验智能化对制造业就业及其劳动力技能结构的影响。结果表明:智能化与中国制造业就业总量之间存在“U”型关系,即智能化水平较低时以对就业的替代为主,智能化水平较高后将显著促进就业增长;智能化通过延伸产业链和促进技术创新等中间途径实现就业的创造效应,其中,延伸产业链的中介效应更为明显;智能化有利于制造业就业结构高级化,随着智能化水平的提高,劳动力市场高技能和中技能劳动力的需求增加,低技能劳动力的需求下降;智能化对制造业就业及其劳动力技能结构的影响存在区域异质性。为应对智能化对制造业就业造成的差异化影响,应进一步提升高等教育和职业教育质量,完善技能培训的内容与模式,制定差异化的区域政策,积极引导智能化促进制造业高质量就业。This paper analyzes the mechanism of how intelligentization impacts the employment of China’s manufacturing industry,and based on China’s 2010—2019 provincial panel data,empirically tests the impact of intelligentization on the employment and skill struc⁃ture of manufacturing industry.The results show that there is a“U⁃shaped”relationship between intelligentization and total employment in China’s manufacturing.When the level of intelligentization is low,the substitution of employment will be the main factor,but the higher level of intelligentization will significantly promote employment growth.The employment creation effect is achieved through inter⁃mediate channels such as extending industrial chain and promoting technological innovation.Among them,the mediating effect of indus⁃trial chain extension is particularly obvious.Intelligentization is conducive to advanced manufacturing employment structure.With the in⁃crease in intelligentization,the demand for high⁃skilled and medium⁃skilled labor will increase,while the demand for low⁃skilled labor will decline.There is regional heterogeneity in the impact of intelligentization on manufacturing employment and its skill structure.To cope with the differential impact of intelligentization on manufacturing employment,we should further improve the quality of higher edu⁃cation and vocational education,optimize the content and model of skills training,formulate differentiated regional policies,and guide intelligentization to promote high⁃quality manufacturing employment.

关 键 词：智能化 制造业 就业总量 技能结构 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济] F249.2F49