基于博弈论-可拓云模型的尾矿库溃坝后果评价  

Evaluation of the Consequences of Dam Failure in Tailings Reservoir Based on Game Theory-Extendable Cloud Model

作　　者：王其虎[1,2] 熊淦麟 叶义成[1,2] 柯丽华[1,2] 贺振祥 SEKOU Doumbouya WANG Qihu;XIONG Ganlin;YE Yicheng;KE Lihua;HE Zhenziang;SEKOU Doumbouya(School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan,Hubei 430081,China;Hubei Key Laboratory for Efficient Utilization and Agglomeration of Metallurgic Mineral Resources,Wuhan,Hubei 430081,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430081 [2]冶金矿产资源高效利用与造块湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430081

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2023年第11期137-142,共6页Mining Research and Development

基　　金：湖北省重点研发计划项目(2020BCA082)。

摘　　要：溃坝后果严重度评价是尾矿库溃坝风险评价的重要内容。针对后果严重度评价时存在的模糊性、随机性等问题,提出了基于博弈论的可拓云模型尾矿库溃坝后果评价模型。首先建立了溃坝后果评价指标体系并分级;然后运用优化的序关系分析(G1)法和反熵权(EWM)法分别计算出评价指标的主、客观权重,并基于博弈论确定综合权重;最后通过可拓云模型求得综合关联度,并确定后果严重度等级。以湖北省4座尾矿库为例,将工程实测值代入模型评价了溃坝后果严重度,为降低溃坝后果严重度提供了参考。The evaluation of the severity of dam failure is an important part of the risk assessment of dam failure in tailings reservoirs.Aiming at the problems of ambiguity and randomness in the evaluation of the severity of consequences,the extendable cloud model for evaluating the consequences of dam failure in tailings reservoirs based on game theory was proposed.Firstly,an index system for evaluating the consequences of dam failure was established and graded.Then,the subjective and objective weights calculated by the optimization sequence relationship analysis(G1)method and the anti-entropy weight(EWM)method,and the comprehensive weights were determined based on game theory.Finally,the comprehensive correlation degree was obtained through the extendable cloud model,and the severity grade of the consequence was determined.Taking four tailings reservoirs in Hubei Province as examples,the measured engineering values were substituted into the model to evaluate the severity of dam failure,and feasible suggestions were put forward to reduce the severity of dam failure.

关 键 词：尾矿库 溃坝后果 博弈论 序关系分析法 反熵权法 可拓云模型 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]