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作 者:王晓永 杨传宇 李昊宇 WANG Xiaoyong;YANG Chuanyu;LI Haoyu
机构地区:[1]河南工业大学经济贸易学院 [2]澳门科技大学商学院,中国澳门
出 处:《世界经济研究》2023年第11期107-121,M0004,共16页World Economy Studies
基 金:教育部人文社会科学研究规划青年项目“中国与‘一带一路’沿线国家双边货币互换的多重合作机制及路径优化研究”(项目编号:23YJC790146);河南省社会科学规划青年项目“RCEP生效后河南省涉外企业应对国际金融风险的策略研究”(项目编号:2022-CJJ-138);河南省教育厅高校重点科研软科学项目“河南省数字经济驱动制造业高质量发展的对策研究”(项目编号:23A790007)。
摘 要:货币政策影响外汇市场的作用机制是评估一国宏观经济调控能力的重要依据。文章将国家主权信用的政治、经济与金融作为政府实施货币政策的内在要素考察其对汇率的影响。实证结果表明:首先,在样本期内,无论国家主权信用水平高低,总量型货币政策对外汇市场的调控作用较为有限,而价格型货币政策对汇率有显著影响。其次,在国家层面中稳定的政治、经济与金融环境是影响政府制定宏观政策调控外汇市场的重要内在因素。相对发达国家,政治和金融稳定对新兴市场经济体和发展中国家的货币政策效果而言更为重要。最后,通过进一步研究发现,汇率制度改革会显著加剧新兴市场经济体和发展中国家的汇率不稳定性。异质性研究表明,对于金融发展水平较高的国家,其金融层面的国家主权信用在货币政策对汇率的影响中发挥了重要内在作用。研究结论表明,价格型货币政策将对稳定一国汇率发挥积极作用,国家主权信用中的金融环境是影响一国实施宏观政策效果的重要内部因素。The mechanism by which monetary policy affecting foreign exchange market was an important basis for evaluating a country's macroeconomic regulation ability.This article examined the political,economic and financial aspects of national sovereign credit as inherent element of government monetary policy implementation,and examines its impact on exchange rate.The empirical results indicated that during the sample period,regardless of level of national sovereign credit,regulatory effect of aggregate monetary policy on foreign exchange market was relatively limited,while price based monetary policy had significant impact on exchange rate stability.Secondly,stable political,economic and financial environment at national level were important internal factors that affect government's formulation of macroeconomic policies to regulate foreign exchange market.Specifically,compared to developed countries,political and financial stability were more important for monetary policies of emerging market countries and developing countries.In addition,through further research,it was found that the reform of exchange rate regime would significantly increase exchange rate instability of emerging market countries and developing countries.Heterogeneity studies indicated that for countries with higher levels of financial development,the national sovereign credit at financial level played important internal role in impact of monetary policy on exchange rate.The research conclusion indicated that price based monetary policies will had a positive effect on stabilizing a country's exchange rate,and the financial environment in a country's sovereign credit was important internal factor that affects effectiveness of implementing macroeconomic policies.
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