河南省卫河流域蓄滞洪区水资源供需情势分析  

Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of Water Resources in the Flood Storage and Detention Area of the Weihe River Basin in Henan Province

作　　者：张修宇[1] 康金鸽 陈思 ZHANG Xiuyu;KANG Jinge;CHEN Si(North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Henan Yubei Water Conservancy Survey and Design Institute Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450002,China)

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450046 [2]河南省豫北水利勘测设计院有限公司,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第12期61-64,70,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：河南省科技研发计划联合基金项目(232103810102);河南省重大公益科技专项(201300311500);河南省科技攻关项目(212102311156);河南省水利科技攻关项目(GG202042);水利部黄河泥沙重点实验室开放课题基金资助项目(HHNS202005);河南省自然科学基金面上项目(222300420492)。

摘　　要：为明晰河南省卫河流域蓄滞洪区水资源供需情势,构建最小二乘法与灰色预测模型相结合的组合模型,预测2025年、2035年该区域的需水量与供水量,并对其开展供需平衡分析。结果表明:河南省卫河流域蓄滞洪区2025年50%、75%保证率的农业需水量占比分别为68%、73%,2035年50%、75%保证率的农业需水量占比分别为61%、67%,农业需水量在总需水量中占比较大;2025年、2035年研究区均处于缺水状态。建议研究区落实最严格水资源管理制度,合理利用南水北调水,加强雨洪水资源利用,逐步改善水资源供需不平衡状态。In order to have a clearer understanding of the water supply and demand situation in the flood storage and detention area of the Weihe River Basin in Henan Province,this article used a combination model of least squares method and grey prediction model to predict the water demand and supply in the study area in 2025 and 2035,and conducted a supply-demand balance analysis.The results show that under the 50%and 75%guarantee rates in 2025,the proportion of agricultural water demand in the study area is 68%and 73%,respectively.In 2035,under the 50%and 75%guarantee rates,the proportion of agricultural water demand in the study area is 61%and 67%,respectively.The proportion of agricultural water demand in the total water demand is relatively larger.In 2025 and 2035,the flood storage and detention areas in the Weihe River Basin of Henan Province are in a water shortage state.It is recommended that the research area implements the strictest water resources management system,reasonably utilizes the water of South-to-North Water Diversion Project,strengthen the utilization of rainwater and flood resources,and gradually improves the imbalance between water supply and demand.

关 键 词：水资源 供需分析 最小二乘法 灰色预测模型 卫河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]