去工业化的碳排放脱钩效应——来自黄河流域县域经济体的经验证据  

The Decoupling Effect of Deindustrialization on Carbon Emissions--Empirical Evidence from Intra-county Economies in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：席建成 安纪钊 XI Jiancheng;AN Jizhao(School of Public Policy and Administration,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710129,China;Carbon Peak Carbon Neutral Technology and Policy Research Center,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi'an 710129,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710129 [2]西北工业大学碳达峰碳中和技术与政策研究中心,陕西西安710129

出　　处：《经济论坛》2023年第11期62-75,共14页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于颠覆性技术创新的装备制造业智能化转型升级机理与路径选择”(72174170);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“政府的数字化转型对产业政策实施效果的影响测度和优化策略研究”(20YJCZH181);西北工业大学硕士研究生实践创新能力培育基金项目“碳强度目标约束对地区产业转型升级的影响研究”(PF2023113)。

摘　　要：工业化过程对化石能源的消耗是二氧化碳排放的主要来源。实现经济增长与碳排放相脱钩,是高质量发展的内在要求。研究基于黄河流域县域经济体2010—2019年的数据,与通过卫星灯光测算得到的碳排放数据相匹配,实证检验“去工业化”对经济增长与碳排放相脱钩的影响,比较“正常去工业化”与“过早去工业化”影响的差异,并探讨地方政府财政能力的调节效应和地区的路径依赖效应。研究发现:“去工业化”有助于经济增长与碳排放相脱钩;“过早去工业化”对经济增长与碳排放相脱钩的影响弱于“正常去工业化”;“去工业化”对经济增长与碳排放相脱钩的影响与地方政府的财政能力密切相关,并存在显著的路径依赖效应。地方政府的财政能力越强,“去工业化”对经济增长与碳排放相脱钩的正向效应越明显;“碳脱钩”水平越高的地区,“去工业化”对经济增长与碳排放相脱钩的影响效应越强。因而,对于发达地区,去工业化与低碳发展是内在统一的,而对于欠发达地区和资源依赖型的地区,去工业化并非低碳发展的良方。The consumption of fossil energy in the process of industrialization is the main source of carbon diox-ide emissions.Realizing the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions is an inherent requirement of high-quality development.Based on the data of intra-county economies in the Yellow River Basin from 2010 to 2019,and matching with the carbon emission data measured by satellite lighting,this paper empirically tests the im-pact of“deindustrialization”on the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions,compares the differ-ence in the impact between“normal deindustrialization”and“premature deindustrialization”,and explores the regulatory effect of local government financial capacity and the path dependence effect of the region.The study finds that:“Deindustrialization”helps to decouple economic growth and carbon emissions;the effect of“early dein-dustrialization”on the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions is weaker than that of“normal dein-dustrialization”;the impact of“deindustrialization”on the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions is closely related to the financial capacity of local governments,and there is a significant path dependence effect.The stronger the financial capacity of local governments,the more obvious the positive effect of“deindustrializa-tion”on the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions;the higher the level of“carbon decoupling”,the stronger the impact of“deindustrialization”on the decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions.Therefore,for developed regions,deindustrialization and low-carbon development are inherently unified,while for underdeveloped regions and resource-dependent regions,deindustrialization is not a good recipe for low-carbon de-velopment.

关 键 词：去工业化 脱钩 财政能力 路径依赖 黄河流域 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]