全球滞胀风险的成因、演进路径及对中国的影响  

Global Stagflation Risk:The Origins,Evolution and Impact on Chinese Economy

作　　者：张晓晶 江振龙[1] Zhang Xiaojing;Jiang Zhenlong(Institute of Finance and Banking,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院金融研究所 [2]中国社会科学院国家金融与发展实验室

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2023年第11期3-15,共13页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：2023年度中国社会科学院国家高端智库基础研究项目(23ZKJC065);国家自然科学基金青年项目“房地产市场波动的影响因素、传导机制和政策分析”(72303237)资助。

摘　　要：新冠疫情以来,全球经济金融动荡起伏,世界经济初步形成了以高通胀、高利率、高债务和低增长为核心特征的滞胀格局。本文通过分析全球滞胀风险的成因发现:经济基本面、政策面、结构性因素和预期共同驱动通胀高企,持续紧张的劳动力市场使核心服务价格成为美国通胀中最“顽固”的部分;在全球总供给“逆风”的时代,紧缩性货币政策抑制通胀的效果将大打折扣。美欧主要发达经济体货币政策的快速调整具有显著的外溢效应,给全球经济增长带来巨大的下行压力。短期看,全球滞胀风险会降低新兴经济体的产出,恶化其债务情况。随着金融动荡从外围国向中心国传导,滞胀风险对全球金融市场和经济增长的负面影响将会越来越显著。中长期看,全要素生产率、人口增长率和劳动参与率面临趋势性下移,低增长将是未来全球经济的新常态。面对全球滞胀风险的外溢效应,中国应坚持“以我为主”的政策基调,防范中心国家政策调整带来的外部冲击,将扩内需放在首位,着力应对“滞”的风险,促进经济向潜在增长水平回归。Summary:The global macro-finance pattern has evolved rapidly since the pandemic.The global economy already formed a stagflation pattern characterized by high inflation,high interest rates,high debt and low growth.Firstly,this paper analyzes the causes of high global inflation,finding that the current forces driving global inflation are a complex mixture of temporary and persistent factors.The effect of tightening monetary policy in suppressing structural inflation is not significant.Secondly,from in-depth analysis of US economic growth from the two dimensions of supply and demand emphasizes that the rapid adjustment of US monetary policy will bring huge downward pressure on global economic growth.As total factor productivity,population growth rate,and labor participation rate trend downward,global economic growth with insufficient vitality and low growth will be the new normal of the global economy in the future.Thirdly,analyzing the risk of global stagflation and the evolution path of policy responses of major developed economies in the United States and Europe,this paper finds that the risk of global stagflation will reduce the output of emerging economies and exacerbate the debt crisis.As financial turmoil spreads from peripheral countries to central countries,the negative impact of global stagflation risks on financial markets and economic growth will become increasingly obvious.The dissipation of supply shocks indicates that the global stagflation crisis will evolve fromn"inflation"to"stagnation".Fourthly,this paper analyzes the spillover effects of global stagflation risks on China from two channels:trade and finance,provides a trend judgment on the impact of global stagflation risks on China,and provides three targeted policy suggestions.At present,China has no inflationary pressure.However,with the increasingly significant external uncertainties,especially the risk of"stagnation",China is facing seriously restricted external demand which has brought many challenges to China's economic development.For this

关 键 词：通胀 长期停滞 滞胀 加息 金融动荡 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学] F831