动荡局势下全球原油贸易新格局与趋势研究  

New pattern and trends of global crude oil trade under turbulent situations

作　　者：杜剑威 孙竹[1] 赵亚伟 刁夏楠 陈会忠 DU Jianwei;SUN Zhu;ZHAO Yawei;DIAO Xia'nan;CHEN Huizhong(China University of Petroleum-Beijing;Shanghai Futures Exchange)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京) [2]上海期货交易所

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第10期50-59,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：2022年2月乌克兰危机爆发以来,国际原油供需体系开始发生结构性变化,新一轮全球原油贸易格局开始演变。截至2022年底,以苏伊士运河为分界线的东西两大原油贸易板块分离愈发明显,全球原油贸易流向由“逆时针”转为“顺时针”,彻底开启原油贸易新格局。2023年以来,受乌克兰危机僵持、地缘政治矛盾加剧、经济全球化逆流等因素的影响,国际局势进入动荡期。本文在2022年底原油贸易体系的基础上,以2023年初为时间节点,分别分析了俄罗斯、亚洲、欧洲、中东4个地区的原油贸易变化,从原油出口、原油进口、贸易流向、原油价格及国际原油价格体系五个方面入手,研究了国际动荡局势下新型原油贸易格局的发展趋势。面对当前的原油贸易新格局,中国可以通过发展多边贸易、提升能源自主保障能力、发挥上海原油期货(SC)金融避险功能和深入推进能源结构转型来应对。Since the outbreak of the Ukraine issue in February 2022,the international crude oil supply and demand system has begun to undergo structural changes,and a new round of global crude oil trade patterns has begun to evolve.By the end of 2022,the separation of the two major crude oil trade plates in the east and west with the Suez Canal as the dividing line became more obvious and the flow of global crude oil trade changed from “counterclockwise” to “clockwise”,completely opening up a new pattern of crude oil trade.Since 2023,the international situation has entered a turbulent period due to the stalemate of the Ukraine issue,the intensification of geopolitical contradictions,and the countercurrent of economic globalization.Based on the crude oil trade system at the end of 2022,with early 2023 as the time frame,this paper analyzes the changes in crude oil trade in such four regions as Russia,Asia,Europe,and the Middle East,respectively,and studies the development trend of the new crude oil trade pattern under international turbulence by starting from such five aspects of crude oil as exports,crude oil imports,trade flows,crude oil prices,and the international crude oil price system.In the face of the current new pattern of crude oil trade,China can deal with the situation by developing multilateral trade,upgrading its independent energy security capacity,giving full play to the financial hedging function of Shanghai Crude Oil Futures(SC),and deeply promoting the transformation of energy structure.

关 键 词：国际动荡局势 全球原油贸易格局 进出口 能源安全 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746