乌克兰危机背景下俄罗斯天然气资源供华潜力分析  

Potential of Russian natural gas resources for China under the Ukraine issue

作　　者：董嘉琪 徐水营 林腾飞 刘乾 孙建科 史盼盼 DONG Jiaqi;XU Shuiying;LIN Tengfei;LIU Qian;SUN Jianke;SHI Panpan(PipeChina Engineering Technology Innovation Co., Ltd.;PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development;Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, China University of Petroleum-Beijing)

机构地区：[1]国家管网集团工程技术创新有限公司 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院 [3]中国石油大学(北京)俄罗斯中亚研究中心

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第10期60-69,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：乌克兰危机引发的能源危机将对俄罗斯的天然气资源出口流向产生深远影响,其经济发展对能源出口的依赖性特点正推动俄方加紧布局东方市场;中国正值能源转型深化时期,未来天然气消费市场仍有较大的发展潜力,叠加当前中美战略博弈形势,引入陆上俄罗斯管道气资源将一定程度上提升中国天然气安全供应的韧性和弹性。本文在研究俄罗斯天然气资源潜力、未来产量以及进出口基础设施的基础上,分析了未来俄天然气资源的潜在市场和贸易流向,在此基础上预测了俄罗斯天然气资源的供华潜力。结果表明,2025年俄罗斯有超过500亿立方米的天然气资源供应中国,2030年有近1000亿立方米的资源潜力,2040年可达到1300亿立方米。在中俄能源合作进程中,需充分考虑资源引入的可靠性,深入研究俄天然气资源的潜在贸易流向,提前应对布局,以便更好地提升中国油气资源的安全保供能力。The energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine issue will have a far-reaching impact on Russia's natural gas resources export flow,and its economic development on energy export dependence is driving the Russian to step up the layout of the Eastern market.China is deepening its energy transition,the future of natural gas consumption market is still a large development potential,superimposed on the current situation of the strategic game between China and the United States,the introduction of onshore Russian pipeline resources,to a certain extent,will enhance the resilience and elasticity of China's natural gas security supply.The paper analyzes the potential markets and trade flows of Russian natural gas resources in the future(local consumption,European market,Northeast Asian market,Central Asian and South Asian markets) based on the study of Russia's natural gas resource potential,future production,and import/export infrastructure and forecasts the potential of Russia's natural gas resources for supply to China.The results show that Russia has more than 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas resources to supply China in 2025,almost 100 billion cubic meters in 2030,and 130 billion cubic meters in 2040.In the process of Sino-Russian energy cooperation,it is necessary to fully consider the reliability of the introduction of resources,conduct in-depth research on the potential trade flow of Russian natural gas resources,and cope with the layout in advance,so as to better enhance China's ability to secure the supply of oil and gas resources.

关 键 词：乌克兰危机 天然气 贸易流向 俄罗斯天然气供华潜力 俄罗斯天然气产业 天然气贸易合作 

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