2023—2024年供暖季中国天然气市场供需预测  

China natural gas market supply and demand forecast for heating season in 2023-2024

作　　者：粟科华[1] 周慧羚 辛静 徐玮琪 张晓[1] SU Kehua;ZHOU Huiling;XIN Jing;XU Weiqi;ZHANG Xiao(Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and development Research Institute;CCB Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院 [2]建银工程咨询有限责任公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2023年第9期61-69,共9页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：经过2022年的历史性下滑之后,2023年中国天然气行业迎来全面复苏。2023年下半年及供暖季,中国天然气供需总体保持相对宽松,预计2023—2024年供暖季天然气需求增速将出现回落。在基准情景下,预计2023—2024年供暖季全国天然气需求量为1871亿立方米,同比增长4.0%;在经济更快复苏、气温持平常年的积极情景下,预计供暖季需求量为1929亿立方米,同比增长7.2%。国产气、进口气和库存调峰气三大来源的供应能力可以满足两种情景下的需求,供需格局总体宽松。建议天然气供应企业高度关注超预期因素变化,做好双向调节准备;着力提升应急调节能力建设和管理水平;“第二梯队”企业应以供应商身份承担其进口气源的储气调峰责任。After a historic downturn in 2022,China's natural gas industry witnessed a full recovery in 2023.The overall supply and demand for natural gas in China will remain relatively loose in the second half of 2023 and the heating season and the growth rate of natural gas demand is projected to decline in the heating season of 2023-2024.Under the baseline scenario,national natural gas demand is expected to be 187.1 billion cubic meters in the heating season of 2023-2024,representing a yearon-year growth of 4.0%.Under the positive scenario of a faster economic recovery and flat year-on-year temperatures,demand is expected to be 192.9 billion cubic meters in the heating season,representing a year-on-year growth of 7.2%.The supply capacity of such three major sources as domestic gas,imported gas,and inventory peak-shaving gas can meet the demand under both scenarios,and the supply and demand pattern is generally loose.It is recommended that natural gas supply enterprises pay close attention to the changes of unexpected factors and make preparations for two-way adjustment and strive to improve the construction and management level of emergency adjustment capacity.“Second tier” enterprises should assume the responsibility of storage and peaking of their imported gas sources as suppliers.

关 键 词：天然气 市场 供暖季 需求 气候 调峰 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] F299.24