菲律宾国家安全政策评析  

An Analysis of the Philippines'National Security Policy

作　　者：薛亮 Xue Liang

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际关系研究院

出　　处：《国家安全研究》2023年第5期83-97,153,154,共17页China security studies

摘　　要：自独立以来,菲律宾长期致力于解决国内安全和国家建设问题并改善外部安全环境。2010年以来,鉴于内外安全形势的变化,菲律宾政府相继发布过4份国家安全政策和战略性质的官方文件,为其国防与国家安全政策提供指南。小马科斯执政后,菲律宾内部安全形势已趋缓和,但外部大国间竞争更加激烈。菲律宾政府遂于2023年8月发布新版国家安全政策,为2023—2028年的内外安全政策确立框架。新版政策将安全重心从内部转向外部,更加倚重西方联盟与伙伴,并引入威慑话语剑指南海。综合判断,菲律宾未来一段时间内的安全重心将进一步北移,融入美国主导的威慑体系以竞逐南海,同时借助外力强化自身国家建设和推进国防现代化,其对华政策将更趋复杂矛盾。Since gaining independence,the Philippines has been striving to restore security and enhance nation building domestically and improve its security environment internationally.From2010 onward,the Philippine government has issued four official documents outlining the country's national security policies and strategies.Under Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr'presidency,the security situation within the Philippines has eased,whereas major-country rivalries are intensifying on the world stage.In response,the Philippine governmentreleased'the updated National Security Policy(NSP)in August 2023,laying down the framework for its internal and external security policies from 2023 to 2028.The latest NSP shifts its focus from internal security to external security,relies more heavily on Western allies and partners,and adopts a rhetoric of deterrence in the South China Sea.Based on a comprehensive analysis,the author anticipates that the emphasis of the Philippine security policy will shift further northward in the near future.By joining the US-led deterrence system,the Philippines aims at competing in the South China Sea and promoting its nation building and defense modernization through external support.Therefore,its China policy may become increasingly complicated and contradictory.

关 键 词：菲律宾 国家安全政策 南海 

分 类 号：D734.1[政治法律—政治学]