基于新型综合干旱指数的汾河上游干旱特征分析  

Analysis of Drought Characteristics in Upper Reaches of Fenhe River Based on New Comprehensive Drought Index

作　　者：武乔 赵雪花[1] WU Qiao;ZHAO Xue-hua(College of Water Resources Science and Engineering,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学水利科学与工程学院,山西太原030024

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第8期15-18,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279020);山西省水利科学技术研究与推广项目(2022GM023)。

摘　　要：汾河流域旱灾具有灾情重、影响范围广的特点,对当地社会经济的发展有很大的阻滞作用,因此准确评估流域内干旱状况具有重要意义。基于SPI、SPEI、SRI三种干旱指数,用泰森多边形进行数据分组,通过Caussian Copula函数构建新型综合干旱指数CI,用M-K趋势检验法对CI年序列进行趋势检验,并由游程理论提取干旱特征。研究发现,CI可以很好地对水文干旱和气象干旱同时做出响应。年尺度CI序列的M-K趋势序列数为-3.78,汾河上游有向干旱发展的趋势。1970年发生的干旱强度最小,为0.06;2013~2016年4年连旱,干旱强度最大为2.66。The drought in the Fenhe River Basin has the characteristics of serious disaster and wide range of influence,which has a great blocking effect on the development of local society economy,so it is of great significance to accurately evaluate the drought situation in the basin.Based on Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Standardized Runoff Index(SRI),the data were grouped with Tyson polygons.A new comprehensive drought index Comprehensive Index(CI)was constructed by Caussian Copula function.Mann-Kendall trend test was used to test the trend of CI annual series,and the run-length theory was used to extract drought features.It is found that CI can respond well to both hydrological and meteorological droughts.The number of M-K trend series of CI sequence is-3.78.There is a trend towards drought in the upper reaches of the Fenhe River.The intensity of drought in 1970 is the smallest,which is 0.06.Four years from 2013 to 2016 appeared continuous drought,and the maximum intensity is 2.66.

关 键 词：综合干旱指数 Copulas函数 水文干旱 气象干旱 汾河上游 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]