新疆水资源空间均衡评价  

Spatially Balanced Evaluation of Water Resources in Xinjiang

作　　者：张玉祥 穆振侠[1,2] 田晓杰 ZHANG Yu-xiang;MU Zhen-xia;TIAN Xiao-jie(College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学水利与土木工程学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第8期56-60,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发计划项目(2022B03024-4);国家自然科学基金项目(51969029,52269007);新疆维吾尔自治区天山英才计划第三期。

摘　　要：为弥补单一基尼系数法在新疆水资源空间均衡评价上的不足,需系统评价水资源与社会发展的匹配关系。选取新疆耕地面积、人口数量、工农业产值、生产总值作为影响水资源承载力的指标,采用联系数法与洛伦兹曲线相结合的方法定量分析区域水资源及子区域水资源与各指标间的均衡性,结合五元减法集对势识别子区域水资源均衡性发展态势。结果表明,2011~2018年新疆整体水资源均衡性呈先升后降趋势,且年际间均处于不均衡状态;从各指标分析可知水资源均衡性在较不均衡与不均衡间波动;从子区域水资源均衡性与态势分析可知大部分地区处于不均衡、反(偏反)势状态,加剧了水资源的不均衡性,明确了需进行水资源均衡调控的对象,为合理改善水资源均衡性指明了方向。In order to make up for the shortcomings of the single Gini coefficient method in the evaluation of spatial equilibrium of water resources,it needs to systematically evaluate the matching relationship between water resources and social development.Selecting arable land area,population size,industrial and agricultural output value and gross product in Xinjiang as the indicators,which affects the carrying capacity of water resources,combination of correlation number method and Lorenz curves was used to quantitatively analyze the equilibrium between regional and sub-regional water resources and indicators.Five element subtractive set of potentials was adopted to identify the development of equilibrium of sub-regional water resources.The results show that the overall water balance in Xinjiang has been rising and then falling during 2011-2018,and is uneven from year to year.The analysis of the indicators shows that the water balance fluctuates between uneven and uneven.The analysis of the sub-regional water balance and trends shows that most areas are in an uneven and inverse state,and exacerbates the unevenness of water resources and identifies the targets for water balance regulation,which points out the direction for reasonable improvement of the balance of water resources.

关 键 词：水资源空间均衡性 联系数 五元减法集对势 基尼系数 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]