考虑极端降雨的抽水蓄能电站施工导流系统风险分析  

Construction Diversion System Risk Analysis for Pumped Storage Power Station Considering Extreme Rainfall

作　　者：胡鑫 刘潋[1] 徐珊 黄建文[1] HU Xin;LIU Lian;XU Shan;HUANG Jian-wen(College of Hydraulic Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Hydropower and Water Conservancy Engineering Institute,Power China Guiyang Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Guiyang 550081,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]中国电建集团贵阳勘测设计研究院有限公司水电水利工程院,贵州贵阳550081

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2023年第8期143-146,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51879147);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(2020KSD12)。

摘　　要：为研究极端降雨条件下抽水蓄能电站施工导流的风险,基于系统风险分析思想,考虑上下库来水之间的相关性,提出Copula-Monte Carlo导流风险预测方法,构建上库极端降雨量与下库洪量的联合分布,模拟极端降雨引发的施工洪水过程;根据上下库导流工程特点,构建了抽水蓄能电站导流系统风险模型,并考虑水文、水力不确定性随机模拟风险率;最后,以西南某在建抽水蓄能电站为例进行计算,结果表明极端降雨条件下Gumbel-Copula联合分布拟合施工洪水效果良好,考虑相关性的导流系统风险率更高,且更符合实际,为极端降雨下的抽水蓄能电站施工导流方案决策和度汛标准设计提供了参考。To study the diversion risk of pumped storage power station construction under extreme rainfall,based on the idea of system risk analysis,the Copula-Monte Carlo method for diversion risk prediction was proposed by considering the correlation between upper and lower reservoir inflow.Joint distribution of the upper reservoir extreme rainfall and the lower reservoir flood volume was constructed to simulate the construction flood process caused by extreme rainfall.According to the characteristics of the upper and lower reservoirs diversion engineering,the risk model of the diversion system in the pumped storage power station was established to simulate the risk rate by considering hydrological and hydraulic uncertainty.Finally,a pumped storage power station under construction in southwest China was taken as an example,the results show Gumbel-Copula joint distribution fits the construction flood well in extreme rainfall cases,the diversion system risk rate is higher and more realistic when considering the correlation.It provides a reference for pumped storage power station construction diversion scheme selection and flood standard design under extreme rainfall.

关 键 词：抽水蓄能电站 施工导流风险分析 极端降雨 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV551.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]