基于InVEST-PLUS模型的三峡库区(重庆段)生境质量演变及预测  

Evolution and Prediction of Habitat Quality in the Three Gorges Reservoir(Chongqing section)Based on the InVEST-PLUS Model

作　　者：梁甜 黄茜 杨霏[3] 毛怡然 罗胤晨 文传浩 任晓红 LIANG Tian;HUANG Xi;YANG Fei;MAO Yi-ran;LUO Yin-chen;WEN Chuan-hao;REN Xiao-hong(College of Economics and Management,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074 China;College of Public Management,Chongqing Finance and Economics College,Chongqing 401320,China;Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;College of Economics,Chongqing Finance and Economics College,Chongqing 401320,China;College of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650091,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆财经学院公共管理学院,重庆401320 [3]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆400067 [4]重庆财经学院经济学院,重庆401320 [5]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2023年第10期2184-2195,共12页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：重庆市教委人文社科项目(23SKGH403,22SKGH513);重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(CSTB2023NSCQ-MSX0046);重庆市社会科学规划“西部陆海新通道建设”重大项目(2023ZDLH06)。

摘　　要：生境质量是生物多样性维持能力的重要表征,研究土地利用变化可为区域生境质量时空动态演变特征评估提供科学依据。基于2000、2010和2020年的土地利用数据,综合运用气泡图谱法、InVEST模型和PLUS模型,对三峡库区(重庆段)2000~2030年的土地利用转型和生境质量演变特征进行评价及预测,并利用生态贡献率探究导致生境质量改善和恶化的土地利用转移类型。结果表明:(1)2000~2020年各类用地面积变化明显,耕地和草地面积呈现出持续下降的趋势,建设用地面积持续上升;预测2020~2030年土地利用变化趋势同2000~2020年基本一致,且耕地主要向建设用地转变。(2)研究区生境质量的高低受人类活动强度影响较大,且主要以“中等”和“优等”质量为主。2000~2020年生境质量呈现出先上升后下降的趋势,预测到2030年生境质量呈现出持续下降的趋势。(3)生境质量存在着改善和恶化两种情况。其中,2000~2020年耕地转为林地和草地是生境质量改善的主要原因,草地和林地转为耕地是生境质量恶化的主要原因;预测2020~2030年耕地和草地转为建设用地是生境质量恶化的主要原因。研究结果对提升三峡库区(重庆段)生境质量、优化国土空间布局和促进土地资源可持续利用具有重要理论支撑和科学参考。Habitat quality is an important representation of biodiversity maintenance capacity.The study of land use change can provide a scientific basis for the assessment of spatiotemporal dynamic evolution characteristics of regional habitat quality.Based on the land use data in 2000,2010,and 2020.The bubble map method,InVEST model,and PLUS model were integrated to evaluate and predict the land use transformation and associated habitat quality evolution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area(Chongqing section)from 2000 to 2030.Ecological contribution rates were used to explore the types of land use transfers that ledto the improvement and deterioration of habitat quality.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2020,the center of gravity of various types of land use changed significantly,the area of cultivated land and grassland showed a trend of continuous decline,and the area of construction land continued to increase.The trend of land use change from 2020 to 2030 was basically the same as that from 2000 to 2020,and the cultivated land was mainly transformed into construction land.(2)Habitat quality was greatly affected by the intensity of human activities.The habitat quality in the study area was mainly“medium”and“excellent”.From 2000 to 2020,the habitat quality showed a trend of an increase,followed bya decrease.From 2020 to 2030,habitat quality showed a trend of continuous decline.(3)There are two trends of habitat quality:improvement and deterioration.The conversion of cultivated land to woodland and grassland from 2000 to 2020 was the main reason for the improvement of habitat quality.The conversion of grassland and woodland to cultivated land was the main reason for the deterioration of habitat quality.The conversion of cultivated land and grassland to construction land was predicted to be the main cause of habitat quality deterioration during 2020-2030.The results provided important theoretical support and scientific reference for the improvement of habitat quality,optimization of territorial spatial layout,

关 键 词：生境质量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 生态贡献率 三峡库区(重庆段) 

分 类 号：Q149[生物学—生态学] X826[生物学—普通生物学]