基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价法的项目风险评价应用研究  

Research on the Application of Project Risk Assessment Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：林友臣 LIN Youchen(Fuzhou Industrial Park Development Group Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350000,Fujian,China)

机构地区：[1]福州工业园区开发集团有限公司,福建福州350000

出　　处：《工程技术研究》2023年第19期36-38,共3页Engineering and Technological Research

摘　　要：文章以东南汽车产线改造升级工程为背景,研究了其项目风险评价。首先详细介绍了项目风险识别原则和风险评价原则,然后从项目风险识别方法出发,从项目风险决策、设计、施工、交竣工全过程筛选相应的风险因素,最后运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法构建了风险评价指标体系,进一步得到精准化、定量化的评价。该方法能全面且有针对性地判定各项指标,弥补前人定性或半定量评估的不足,使结果更科学和实用。Based on the background of Southeast Auto production line transformation and upgrading engineering,the project risk assessment is studied.Firstly,the project risk identification principles and risk assessment principles are introduced in detail.Then,starting from the project risk identification methods,corresponding risk factors are screened from the whole process of project risk decision-making,design,construction and completion.Finally,the risk assessment indication system is constructed by using Analytic Hierarchy Process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,and the accurate and quantitative evaluation is further obtained.This method can comprehensively and pertinently determine various indicators,make up for the shortcomings of previous qualitative or semi-quantitative evaluations,and make the results more scientific and practical.

关 键 词：项目管理 风险评价 指标体系 层次分析法 模糊综合评价法 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]