房地产投资、地方债和“中国货币之谜”  

Real Estate Speculation,Local Government Debt and"the Monetary Puzzle in China"

作　　者：周颖刚 韩颖杰 廖谋华 Yinggang ZHOU;Yingjie HAN;Mouhua LIAO(Center for Macroeconomic Research,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;Department of Finance,School of Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China;School of Business,Wuxi Taihu University,Wuxi 214064,China;Ocean College and School of Economics and Management,Fujian Polytechnic Normal University,Fuzhou 350300,China;Fujian Coastal Tourism Modern Industry College,Fuzhou 350300,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心,厦门361005 [2]厦门大学经济学院金融系,厦门361005 [3]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院,厦门361005 [4]无锡太湖学院商学院,无锡214064 [5]福建技术师范学院海洋学院、经济与管理学院,福州350300 [6]福建滨海旅游现代产业学院,福州350300

出　　处：《计量经济学报》2023年第4期905-935,共31页China Journal of Econometrics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(19ZDA060);国家自然科学基金(71988101);福建省自然科学基金(2018J01117);福建省社科规划重大项目(FJ2020MJDZ049)。

摘　　要：改革开放以来,中国M2/GDP长期上升却没有持续出现严重的通货膨胀、货币流通速度长期下降现象,被称为“中国货币之谜”.2008年—2019年间,此现象更加显著.为了解释这一现象,本文根据中国的经济特征和30多种实际数据,拓展文献中研究房地产投资的模型结构,建立和校准了一个一般均衡模型.校准后的模型解释了12年间M2/GDP上升的42.27%和货币流通速度下降的49.70%.“反事实”分析表明,如果根据“十四五”规划,实现货币供应量基本匹配名义GDP增速,可以破解“中国货币之谜”,并有助于经济高质量发展.本文的主要贡献是提供了一个分析框架,可以量化房地产投资、地方政府债务等因素对M2/GDP上升和货币流通速度下降的影响.Since the reform and opening up,especially during 2008-2019,China's M2/GDP has been rising for a long time without serious persisting inflation and China's velocity of money is declining continually,which is called"the monetary puzzle in China".In order to explain this phenomenon,based on China's important economic characteristics and more than 30 types of actual data,this paper expands the model structure in the literature on real estate bubble,establishes and calibrates a general equilibrium model.After accounting for two kinds of money demands with leverage effects and two money supply drivers,real estate investment and local government debt,the calibrated model maintains a low CPI growth rate and explains 42.27%of the 12-year M2/GDP rise,and 49.70%of the decline in the velocity of money.The"counterfactual"analysis shows that if the money supply basically matches the nominal GDP growth rate according to the requirement of"14th Five-Year Plan of China",it can solve the"the monetary puzzle in China"and enhance the high-quality economic development in China.The main contribution of this paper is to provide an analytical framework that can quantify the impact of real estate investment,local government debt,and other factors on the rise in M2/GDP and the decline in the velocity of money.

关 键 词：房地产投资 地方政府债务 “中国货币之谜” 货币流通速度 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F812.5F822