沪舟甬跨海通道的空间收敛效应评估  

Evaluation of Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-sea Channel's spatial convergence effects

作　　者：陈卓 金凤君[1,2] Chen Zhuo;Jin Fengjun(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学》2023年第10期1701-1709,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001129,42271187);国家社会科学基金项目(20&ZD099)资助。

摘　　要：考虑综合交通网络优化、邻近跨海通道的影响和客货运输差异,利用空间可达性和联系潜力模型,多情景、多维度评估了沪舟甬跨海通道的空间收敛效应。结果显示:(1)由于沪甬跨海通道的竞争和替代效应,沪舟甬跨海通道对出行活动的影响较小,主要服务于舟山市的城际出行活动,并具有成为旅游通道的潜力;(2)沪舟甬跨海通道增强了浙江洋山深水港在浙江省的竞争优势和宁波舟山港在江苏省的竞争优势,但对洋山深水港的影响显著高于对宁波舟山港的影响;(3)相较于沪甬跨海通道,沪舟甬跨海通道在货运上具有优势,未来对沪舟甬跨海通道的需求预测和科学论证应重点关注其货运功能。Accurate evaluation of the spatial convergence effect of major transportation projects is an important basis for engineering decision-making.The Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-Sea Channel connects Shanghai,Zhoushan and Ningbo.It is an important part of the coastal transportation channel and a key project of the Yangshan Deepwater Port,and of great significance to the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta.Considering the optimization of the future regional transportation networks,the impact of adjacent major transportation projects,differences between the passenger and freight transportation,and differences in travel modes,this paper evaluated the spatial convergence effects of the Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-Sea Channel in multiple scenarios and multiple dimensions.Results show that,firstly,due to the competition and substitution effects of the Shanghai-Ningbo Cross-sea Channel,the Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-Sea Channel has less impact on travel activities.Moreover,the Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-sea Channel mainly serves intercity travel activities of Zhoushan,and has the potential to become a tourist channel connected Zhoushan,Shanghai,Suzhou and Nantong.Secondly,the Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-sea Channel can enhance the competitive advantage of the Yangshan Deepwater Port in Zhejiang Province and the competitive advantage of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port in Jiangsu Province,which is conducive to the further cross-integration of the hinterlands of these two ports.Further,the impact of the Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-sea Channel on the Yangshan Deepwater Port is significantly higher than that on Ningbo Zhoushan Port.Thirdly,compared with the Shanghai-Ningbo Cross-Sea Channel,the Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-Sea Channel has advantages in freight transportation.In the future,the transportation demand forecast and scientific demonstration of the Shanghai-Zhoushan-Ningbo Cross-Sea Channel should focus on its freight function.

关 键 词：沪舟甬跨海通道 空间收敛效应 港口腹地 情景分析 长江三角洲 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]