基于PGIS和水文-淹没模型的社区洪水风险分析——以浙江省台州市大田河流域为例  

Community-based flood risk analysis using PGIS and hydrological-inundation model:A case of the Datian River Basin in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：赖小霞 单薪蒙 陈波 李卫江[1] 温家洪[1] Lai Xiaoxia;Shan Xinmeng;Chen Bo;Li Weijiang;Wen Jiahong(School of Environment and Geographical Sciences,Shanghai Normal University,Shanghai 200234,China;Shangrao Meteorological Bureau,Shangrao 334000,Jiangxi,China;Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science of Ministry of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Research Center for Urban Public Security,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China,Beijing 100875,China;Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management Ministry of Emergency Management&Ministry of Education,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]上海师范大学环境与地理科学学院,上海200234 [2]上饶市气象局,江西上饶334000 [3]华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海200241 [4]华东师范大学地理科学学院,上海200241 [5]华东师范大学上海城市公共安全研究中心,上海200241 [6]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [7]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [8]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [9]应急管理部-教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《地理科学》2023年第10期1851-1860,共10页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171080、41771540);教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(20YJCZH180)资助。

摘　　要：以浙江省大田河流域为案例,基于参与式地理信息系统(PGIS)开展野外调查,构建居民建筑及其室内财产的脆弱性曲线;利用HEC-HMS水文和HAND淹没模型,模拟6种洪水淹没情景,开展承灾体建模、暴露与潜在损失分析,从而实现社区尺度的多情景洪水风险分析。结果表明,基于PGIS的问卷调查和家庭访谈可有效收集社区本地知识并辅助完成风险分析。从2年一遇到500年一遇洪水,受淹建筑足迹由6.72%增至61.44%,总的暴露资产由23.24亿元增至222.48亿元;结合脆弱性分析得出,洪水潜在损失由3.86亿元上升为54.19亿元。社区的洪水年期望损失为4.89亿元,有必要采取综合性防洪适应措施,以应对未来可能加剧的洪水灾害风险。该研究可为开展社区参与式的洪水风险分析提供借鉴。Taking the Datian River Basin in Zhejiang Province as an example,three field surveys were conducted with the support of participatory geographic information system(PGIS).Six flooding scenarios were simulated,using the HEC-HMS hydrological and HAND-based inundation model.Multi-scenario-based flood risk was analyzed at the community scale by:1) Conducting flood hazard simulation and evaluation;2) Mapping the footprint,height,economic values,and exposed assets of residential building;and 3) Incorporating the vulnerability curves of residential buildings and household properties estimated using data collected from field surveys.The results showed that,PGIS-assisted questionnaire survey and household interview methods can effectively collect local flood prevention knowledge and assist risk analysis.Comparison between the risk assessments of the 2-year and 500-year floods showed that:the footprint of inundated buildings increased from6.72% to 61.44%;and the total exposed assets increased from 2.324×10^(9) to 22.248×10^(9) yuan;The flood potential losses rose from 0.386×10^(9) to 5.419×10^(9) yuan,and the expected annual flood damage(EAD) is 0.489×10^(9) yuan/year.These results indicate it is necessary to take comprehensive flood adaptation measures to cope with the potentially increasing flood risk.The framework proposed in this study can provide insights into community-based flood risk analysis.

关 键 词：洪水风险分析 参与式GIS HEC-HMS水文模型 HAND淹没模型 社区 

分 类 号：P170.45[天文地球—天文学]