黄河流域气象水文干旱时滞效应与影响因素分析  

Time lag effect and influencing factors of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：陈令仪 朱秀芳 唐谊娟[3] 刘婷婷 张世喆 卢冬燕 徐昆 郭锐 Chen Lingyi;Zhu Xiufang;Tang Yijuan;Liu Tingting;Zhang Shizhe;Lu DongYan;Xu Kun;Guo Rui(State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Institute of Remote Sensing&Mapping,Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,Yinchuan 750021,Ningxia,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学遥感科学国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [3]宁夏回族自治区遥感调查院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《地理科学》2023年第10期1861-1868,共8页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0606901);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03668)资助。

摘　　要：本文基于ERA5气候数据、GRACE重力卫星的Level 3水储量产品数据,计算了黄河流域的标准降水蒸散指数(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index,SPEI)和标准化陆地水储量指数SWSI(Standardized Water Storage Index,SWSI),采用Spearman秩相关法探究了SPEI和SWSI之间的时滞效应,并利用地理探测器模型分析了气象水文干旱时滞差异的主导影响因素以及各因素之间两两交互的影响作用。研究结果表明:2003—2019年黄河流域气象干旱与水文干旱间均存在明显的时滞效应,不同月份的SWSI和SPEI的滞后时间不一样,整个流域春冬两个季节的平均滞后时长为3个月,夏秋季节的平均滞后时长为4个月。土壤类型对时滞差异的影响最大,气象因子和人类活动对时滞差异的影响次之,气象因子中潜在蒸散的影响最大。不同因子间的交互影响均比单因子影响大。在双因子交互影响中土壤类型和潜在蒸散之间的协同作用最为显著,其次为土壤类型与温度以及土壤类型与土地利用的协同作用。Exploring the time lag relationship and its influencing factors of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin can provide a scientific basis for drought monitoring and prevention in the Yellow River Basin.In this study,based on the climate data of ERA5 and the water storage product of GRACE gravity satellite,the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) and the standardized water storage index(SWSI) of the Yellow River Basin were calculated,and the time lag effect between SPEI and SWSI was explored by Spearman rank correlation method.The main influencing factors of the spatial difference in the time lag effect between SPEI and SWSI and the interaction between these factors were analyzed by using the geographic detector model.The research results show that the time lag of meteorological and hydrological drought in the Yellow River Basin has obvious spatial heterogeneity.The lag time of SWSI and SPEI is different in different months.The average lag time of spring and winter is 3 months,and that of summer and autumn is 4 months.Soil type has the greatest impact on the time lag difference,followed by meteorological factors and human activities.Among the meteorological factors,the potential evapotranspiration has the greatest influence.The interaction between different factors is greater than that of single factor.In the two factor interaction,the interaction between soil type and potential evapotranspiration is the most significant,followed by that of soil type and average temperature and that of soil type and potential evapotranspiration.

关 键 词：气象干旱 水文干旱 GRACE重力卫星 地理探测器 黄河流域 

分 类 号：P332[天文地球—水文科学]