城市交通系统低碳发展策略  

Low-Carbon Development Strategies for Urban Transportation Systems

作　　者：宋伟男 李振宇[1] 王林阳 高畅 SONG Weinan;LI Zhenyu;WANG Linyang;GAO Chang(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2023年第5期73-82,共10页Transport Research

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(20234808)。

摘　　要：为加快城市交通节能降碳进程,研究提出城市交通系统脱碳发展策略。首先,系统分析了城市交通低碳发展现状及存在的主要问题;然后,基于统计数据及相关研究成果,采用“自下而上”法测算城市交通各出行方式的碳减排总量,利用情景分析法量化评估不同减排策略的碳减排潜力;最后,结合评估结果提出城市交通系统深度脱碳的发展策略。研究结果表明,新能源车辆的大力推广是减碳见效最快的措施,为实现“双碳”目标,在交通运输方式中应加快实施新能源车辆的全面替代;长期看提升车辆燃油经济性减碳效果最显著,应聚焦节能关键技术研发应用和节能驾驶推广,全面提升运输装备能效水平;优化交通出行结构是见效慢、减碳周期较长的措施,需从城市发展规划和绿色出行服务方面着手逐步提升低碳出行比例;推广智能交通技术是前景较好的措施,应充分利用自动驾驶、智慧出行等技术,创造性提升城市交通系统效率。To expedite the decarbonization and energy-saving process of urban transportation,this study proposed strategies for the decarbonization development of urban transportation system.Firstly,it systematically analyzed the current status and identified its major problems of the low-carbon development in urban transportation.Secondly,based on the statistics and previous research findings,it adopted "bottom-up" approach to calculate the total carbon emissions reduction of 4 transport modes in different scenarios,which were designed to evaluate the potentials of different emission-reduction strategies.Finally,it proposed a set of strategies for urban transportation′s deep-decarbonization development based on the evaluation results.Through the analysis of the research findings,it is evident that intensifying the promotion of new energy vehicles is the most effective measure for carbon reduction.Therefore,there should be an accelerated implementation of comprehensive replacement with new energy sources to achieve the "dual-carbon" goal.In the long term,enhancing the vehicle fuel economy has the most significant carbon reduction utility,emphasizing the development and application of energy-saving key technologies and promoting energy-efficient driving practices to elevate the overall efficiency of transportation equipment.Optimizing the structure of transportation and travel yields gradual but prolonged carbon reduction effects,requiring gradual improvements in low-carbon travel proportions through urban development planning and the provision of green travel services.The promotion of intelligent transportation technology presents a promising prospect,advocating the creative utilization of technologies such as autonomous driving and intelligent travel to significantly enhance the efficiency of urban transportation systems.

关 键 词：城市交通 碳排放测算 情景分析 减排潜力 深度脱碳 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]