基于LMDI及Tapio模型的河北省物流业碳排放驱动因素研究  

Study on Carbon Emission Driving Factors of Logistics Industry in Hebei Province Based on LMDI and Tapio Model

作　　者：董福贵[1] 靳博文 Dong Fugui;Jin Bowen(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《现代工业经济和信息化》2023年第10期172-174,178,共4页Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization

基　　金：北京社科基金项目(项目编号:21JJB012)。

摘　　要：对河北省2005—2020年物流业的碳排放量进行测算,发现碳排放量主要呈现逐年上升的趋势。利用LMDI因素分解法,对设定的排放强度、能源结构、能源效率、产业结构、人均GDP和人口规模六个影响碳排放的驱动因素进行分解,通过结果分析可得:河北省的能源结构、人均GDP和人口规模这三个影响因素发展情况对河北省物流业减少碳排放起到了负面作用;能源效率和产业结构对物流业碳减排起到了正面作用。采用Tapio脱钩模型来分析物流业碳排放,发现2005—2020年期间除部分年份以外,物流业的经济发展与碳排放之间的脱钩状态大部分呈弱脱钩的状态。最后,提出了优化能源结构、提高能源效率、改善产业结构等建议。The carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2020 were measured,and it was found that the carbon emissions mainly showed a rising trend year by year.Using the LMDI factor decomposition method,the set six driving factors affecting carbon emissions,namely emission intensity,energy structure,energy efficiency,industrial structure,per capita GDP and population size,are decomposed,and the analysis of the results reveals that:the development of the three influencing factors of Hebei Province,namely energy structure,per capita GDP and population size,plays a negative role in reducing carbon emissions of the logistics industry in Hebei Province;energy efficiency and industrial structure play a positive role in reducing carbon emissions in the logistics industry.The Tapio decoupling model is used to analyse the carbon emissions of the logistics industry,and it is found that the decoupling status between the economic development of the logistics industry and the carbon emissions is mostly weakly decoupled from 2005 to 2020,except for some years.Finally,suggestions are made to optimise the energy structure,improve energy efficiency,and improve the industrial structure.

关 键 词：物流业 碳排放 LMDI分解模型 Tapio脱钩模型 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]