基于超越对数生产函数的气象条件变化对京津冀地区行业产出的影响研究  

The Influence of Meteorological Condition Changes on Industrial Output in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Translog Production Function

作　　者：王子忠 潘志华[1] 宋玉 黄娜 龙步菊[1] 伦飞[1] Wang Zizhong;Pan Zhihua;Song Yu;Huang Na;Long Buju;Lun Fei(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193;Shanxi Meteorological Observatory,Taiyuan 030006)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]山西省气象台,太原030006

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2023年第5期6-13,共8页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606303)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化对经济系统及其各个部门产生了重要影响,定量辨识气象条件变化对经济系统的影响是研究经济系统适应气候变化的迫切需要。利用京津冀地区工业、建筑业等五个行业的生产总值、资本存量等经济数据和气象数据,采用超越对数生产函数探究京津冀地区气象条件变化对行业产出的影响,定量揭示不同行业对气象条件变化的敏感性。结果表明,采暖度日(每增加1%)对建筑业、交通运输仓储邮政业、工业、批发零售业以及农业的边际产出弹性分别为-0.1501%、0.6197%、0.9309%、0.4473%以及-0.7311%,降温度日(每增加1%)对五个经济部门的边际产出弹性分别为0.0274%、-0.0208%、-0.0709%、-0.1028%以及0.0282%,降水距平百分率对五个部门的边际影响分别为-0.1643%、-0.1365%、-0.0005%、-0.0407%以及0.0407%。气候变暖对经济系统的负面影响逐渐增强,特别是对工业、交通运输仓储邮政业和批发零售业的影响更大,短期来看对建筑业和农业有利;降水对除农业以外的其他部门都为负面影响,对建筑业和交通运输业的负面影响最大。研究结果对探究气候变化对社会经济的影响规律,增强社会经济对气候变化的适应能力具有一定的参考意义。Global climate change has important impacts on economic systems and their various sectors.And therefore,to study the adaptation of economic systems to climate change,it is urgent to identify the quantitative impacts of changes in meteorological conditions on economic systems.Here,based on the economic data including total output value and capital stock of five sectors as well as the meteorological data in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the impact of meteorological condition changes on the total output value was explored using a translog production function,and the sensitivity of different industries to meteorological condition changes were quantitatively revealed.The results show that the marginal output elasticities of heating degree days(every 1%increase)for construction,transportation,warehousing and postal services,industry,wholesale and retail trade,and agriculture are-0.1501%,0.6197%,0.9309%,0.4473%and-0.7311%respectively,and the marginal output elasticities of cooling degree days(every 1%increase)for the five sectors are 0.0274%,-0.0208%,-0.0709%,-0.1028%,and 0.0282%respectively.Meanwhile,the marginal impacts of precipitation anomalies on the five sectors are-0.1643%,-0.1365%,-0.0005%,-0.0407%,and 0.0407%respectively.The negative impact of climate warming on economic systems has been gradually increasing,especially for industry,transportation,warehousing and postal services,and wholesale and retail trade.In the short term,the climate warming is beneficial to construction industry and agriculture.Precipitation has a negative impact on all sectors except agriculture,with the largest negative impact on construction and transport.This study has implications for exploring the impact of climate change on socio-economic development and enhancing socio-economic adaptability to climate change.

关 键 词：超越对数生产函数 气象条件 行业生产总值 敏感性 京津冀地区 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济] P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]