1972—2016年江苏省启东市脑肿瘤患者生存率趋势分析  

Trend analysis of brain tumor survival rate in Qidong City,Jiangsu Province,1972-2016

作　　者：严永锋 徐源佑 王军[1] 陈永胜 张永辉[1] 丁璐璐 陈建国[1] 樊健 朱健[1] YAN Yongfeng;XU Yuanyou;WANG Jun;CHEN Yongsheng;ZHANG Yonghui;DING Lulu;CHEN Jianguo;FAN Jian;ZHU Jian(The Affiliated Qidong Hospital of Nantong University,Qidong People’s Hospital,Qidong Liver Cancer Institute,Qidong 226200,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学附属启东医院、启东市人民医院、启东肝癌防治研究所,江苏启东226200

出　　处：《华南预防医学》2023年第8期960-964,共5页South China Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：南通市市级科技计划项目(JCZ20154,JCZ2022050);南通市卫生健康委员会科研项目(QB2019026)。

摘　　要：目的分析江苏省启东市1972—2016年全人群脑及中枢神经系统肿瘤(以下简称脑肿瘤)病例生存率,为预后评价及防治提供依据。方法基于启东市癌症登记病例资料,采用SURV3.01软件中Hakulinen方法计算观察生存率(observed survival rate,OSR)和相对生存率(relative survival rate,RSR),应用Hakulinen氏似然比检验法进行统计学检验。用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件进行Joinpoint回归分析,计算脑肿瘤生存率年度变化百分比(annual percentage change,APC)。用SAS 9.2软件采用时间序列分析中的ARIMA模型进行脑肿瘤患者生存率趋势预测。结果启东市1972—2016年脑肿瘤1、5、10年OSR分别为30.11%、14.94%及11.84%;1、5、10年RSR分别为30.77%、16.70%及14.94%。分时期生存率分析显示RSR上升趋势有统计学意义(P<0.01)。男性RSR低于女性,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。不同年龄组RSR差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。1972—2016年5年OSR与5年RSR的总体APC分别为3.45%(P<0.01)和3.63%(P<0.01),其中男性5年RSR的APC为6.53%(P<0.01),女性5年RSR的APC为6.99%(P<0.01)。预测结果显示至2026年启东市脑肿瘤患者5年OSR升至33.06%,5年RSR升至38.48%。结论1972—2016年启东市脑肿瘤患者的生存率得到稳步提升,但尚存在较大的上升空间,应重视脑肿瘤的防治工作。Objective To analyze the survival rate of brain and central nervous system tumors(hereinafter referred to as brain tumors)in the whole population from 1972 to 2016 in Qidong City,Jiangsu Province,to provide the basis for prognosis evaluation and prevention.Methods Based on the cancer registration case data in Qidong City,the observed survival rate(OSR)and relative survival rate(RSR)were calculated using the Hakulinen method in SURV3.01 software,and statistical test was performed using Hakulinen's likelihood ratio test.Joinpoint regression analysis was performed with Joinpoint 4.7.0.0 software to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)of brain tumors survival rate.The ARIMA model in time series analysis was used to predict the survival rate trend of brain tumor patients with SAS 9.2 software.Results The 1,5,and 10-year OSR of brain tumors in Qidong City from 1972 to 2016 were 30.11%,14.94%,and 11.84%,respectively;the 1,5,and 10-year RSR were 30.77%,16.70%,and 14.94%,respectively.Survival analysis by period showed a statistically significant upward trend in RSR(P<0.01).The RSR of males were lower than that of females,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.01).There was a statistically significant difference in RSR among each age group(P<0.01).The APC results showed that the overall APC of 5-year OSR and 5-year RSR from 1972 to 2016 were 3.45%(P<0.01)and 3.63%(P<0.01),respectively.The APC of male 5-year RSR was 6.53%(P<0.01),and the APC of female 5-year RSR was 6.99%(P<0.01).The prediction results showed that the 5-year OSR of brain tumors in Qidong would increase to 33.06%and the 5-year RSR would increase to 38.48%by 2026.Conclusions From 1972 to 2016,the survival rate of brain tumor patients in Qidong has been steadily improved,but there is still a lot of room for improvement.More attention to the prevention and treatment of brain tumors is recommended.

关 键 词：脑肿瘤 生存率 趋势 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]