可液化场地中埋置管道上浮位移预测及概率风险评估  

Prediction and probability risk evaluation of uplift displacement of buried pipeline in liquefiable site

作　　者：杜文琪 单晟治 莫腾飞 吴强[1] DU Wenqi;SHAN Shengzhi;MO Tengfei;WU Qiang(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《武汉大学学报(工学版)》2023年第12期1483-1490,共8页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:52078393,52309140)。

摘　　要：地震作用下液化区的埋地管道容易发生上浮破坏。为构建具有较强普适性的管道上浮风险评估的概率性分析方法,首先基于OpenSees有限元软件进行大量非线性动力响应分析,在此基础上,以管道埋深、管径、液化土层厚度、土体相对密度和地震动累积绝对速度为参数建立管道上浮位移预测模型,然后结合概率地震危险性分析的方法,以点源地震为例进行管道的全概率评估。结果表明:所提管道上浮位移预测模型与已有离心机试验结果吻合较好,基于位移预测模型的概率地震管道上浮危险性评估方法能够同时考虑位移预测的不确定性和地震动的不确定性,为从全概率角度评估管道的上浮风险提供了实现途径。Pipes buried in liquefiable sites are prone to floating failure under earthquake action.In order to construct a more universal probabilistic analysis method for hazard assessment of pipe uplift,a large number of nonlinear dynamic response analyses are carried out based on OpenSees finite element software.Based on the results obtained,a prediction model of pipe uplift displacement is constructed with the parameters of buried depth of pipe,diameter of pipe,thickness of liquefied soil layer,relative density of soil and cumulative absolute velocity of ground motions.Then,combined with probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method,the full probabilistic assessment of pipe uplift hazard is conducted by taking point source earthquake as an example.The results indicate that the proposed prediction model of pipe uplift displacement is consistent with existing centrifuge test results.The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of pipe uplift based on the displacement prediction model incorporates the uncertainties of ground motions and displacement predictions simultaneously,which provides an effective way to evaluate the uplift hazard of pipes from the full probabilistic perspective.

关 键 词：土体液化 管道上浮 上浮位移预测 概率地震危险性 

分 类 号：TU435[建筑科学—岩土工程]