中国的货币政策独立性、汇率制度和资本账户开放度  

China's Monetary Policy Independence,Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Openness

作　　者：何知仁 李巍 HE Zhi-ren;LI Wei(Antai College of Economics&Management,Shanghai Jiao Tong University 200030;School of Economics and Management,East China Normal University 200062)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,200030 [2]华东师范大学经济与管理学部,200062

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2023年第11期71-88,共18页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：上海交通大学现代金融研究基金项目“国际金融资本流动及风险预警”和“国际体系分化中的人民币国际化”的阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：本文对中国的货币政策独立性、汇率制度和资本账户开放度的代表性测度作了系统性梳理和创新性改进。应用改进后的测度,实证结果表明:中国的货币政策独立性同时面临人民币钉住美元倾向、资本账户开放的国内制度约束、全球风险偏好下降和美元升值的外部金融约束;弱化人民币与美元的联系、扩大国内金融市场对外开放能够削弱美元升值对中国货币政策独立性的约束作用。改用文献代表性测度,核心解释变量的系数不再显著,表明本文的测度改进是有效的。最后,本文讨论了中国保持货币政策独立的政策选择。This paper makes systematical reviews and innovative improvements to the measurements of China's monetary policy independence,exchange rate regime and capital account openness.Applying the improved measurements,the empirical results show that China's monetary policy independence faces both internal and external constraints.The internal constraints come from the propensity of RMB pegging to the USD as well as China's outward capital account opening,while the external constraints come from global risk appetite declining as well as the USD appreciation.Weakening the linkage between RMB and the USD and expanding the domestic financial market openness could relieve the constraint effect of the USD appreciation on China's monetary policy independence.Applying the representative measurements in literature,however,the coefficients of core variables would no longer be significant,and implying our measurement improvements are effective.At last,the paper discusses China's policy choices to maintain its monetary policy independence.

关 键 词：中国货币政策独立性 人民币汇率制度 中国资本账户开放 三元悖论 全球金融周期 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]